Nearly half of Taiwanese population express doubts about Trump's defense pledge, according to a survey
Taiwan's Faith in U.S. Defense Commitment Wanes
Caught in a tug-of-war between the U.S. and China, Taiwanese citizens are growing increasingly concerned about the future of their relationship with Washington during Donald Trump's second term. A survey published by the Academia Sinica, Taiwan's leading research center, reveals that 40% of Taiwanese citizens believe U.S. defense commitments will decrease.
Curious Fact: Did you know that Portugal's defense spending stands at 1.58% of GDP, according to the Portuguese government?
Initially, 21.1% and 23.3% of respondents in the 'American Portrait Survey' anticipate "much less" and "somewhat less" support for Taiwan's defense under the Republican administration compared to the closing years of Joe Biden's term (2021-2025).
However, a glimmer of hope remains, with 5.7% expecting "somewhat more" and 4.6% predicting "much more" U.S. commitment from Trump. The majority (38.5%) believe the level of protection will continue as before.
Noteworthy Counterpoint: Amid escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia, there's a significant group of Taiwanese who worry that Washington and Beijing could reach agreements that compromise their national interests. In response to this fear, 59% of respondents expressed concern.
Regarding the possibility of U.S. troops being deployed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, 18.7% are convinced it won't happen, while another 23.7% believe it's unlikely.
Conducting the survey mid-March with over 1,200 participants, Wu Wen-chin, a researcher from the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, stated that it highlights how Trump's approach to foreign policy has created anxiety among Taiwanese regarding their relationship with the U.S.
Taiwan has been governed autonomously since 1949 under the name Republic of China. Though China considers Taiwan a "rebel province," the U.S. has maintained a middle ground, acting as intermediary in the ongoing disputes between the two. The U.S. remains the primary supplier of arms to Taiwan and, although diplomatic ties are not established, it would defend Taiwan in the event of conflict with China.
The U.S.'s stance towards Taiwan frequently causes friction with China, who has declared the "Taiwan issue" as their 'red line' in relations with the U.S. By refusing to commit to defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion at the end of February and praising his Asian counterpart, Xi Jinping, Trump sparked fears among the Taiwanese public.
Despite an uncertain future, Taiwanese officials continue to push for military collaboration with the U.S. Amid Trump's harsh criticism of Taiwan's dominance in the semiconductor sector, Taiwan confirmed its commitment to engagement in this vital field. If the U.S. continues offering military aid and naval patrols, it would likely strengthen Taiwanese confidence in U.S. assurances.
Though Taiwanese public opinion is not fully documented in the available sources, continued U.S. military support and operational posturing likely fortify perceptions of reliability even amid broader geopolitical turmoil under Trump's focused foreign policy.
- The Taiwanese citizens are definitely expressing concerns about the future reduction of U.S. defense commitments during Donald Trump's second term.
- In the 'American Portrait Survey', 21.1% and 23.3% of respondents anticipate "much less" and "somewhat less" support for Taiwan's defense under the Republican administration compared to the closing years of Joe Biden's term (2021-2025).
- Amid escalating tensions between Taiwan and China, a significant number of respondents expressed concern about potential agreements between Washington and Beijing that could compromise Taiwan's national interests.
- Regarding the possibility of U.S. troops being deployed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, 18.7% are convinced it won't happen, while another 23.7% believe it's unlikely.
- If the U.S. continues offering military aid and naval patrols, it would likely strengthen Taiwanese confidence in U.S. assurances, resulting in a more positive outlook in terms of policy-and-legislation, politics, sports, general-news, war-and-conflicts, and other sectors.
