NBA Playoffs' Home Advantage Wanes as Road Teams Maintain Scorching Winning Streak
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Aaron Gordon's clutch performance yet again propelled Denver to victory in an astonishing playoff game. Instead of that jaw-dropping putback dunk with no time left, this time he sank a 3-pointer with just 2.8 seconds remaining on the clock. The Nuggets' unexpected win as underdogs would be the talk of the town on most nights, but this postseason is different – it's simply another thrilling highlight.
The second round of the postseason is just getting started, but the underdogs are barking louder than my mom's chihuahua during an Amazon delivery. So far in three games, the underdogs have mastered the art of causing an upset, standing at 3-0 SU. All three underdogs were at least +280 on the moneyline, and a combination bet of all three at DraftKings' closing numbers would give odds of a staggering +7067.
Although three games are a tiny sample size, these results hint at a larger trend in this postseason. However, it's essential to remember that these victories don't guarantee that the Golden State Warriors will upset the Minnesota Timberwolves in their upcoming match.
Dominating the away games
Thirty-eight games into the NBA postseason, homecourt advantage seems to be losing its value. Road teams are taking control of the playoffs. In the last eight postseason contests, road teams are on a roll with a 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS run. Home teams in the postseason have a 25-21 SU record, but road teams are showing their mettle with a record of 24-21-1 ATS. It appears that the betting market might be overvaluing the numerical value of homecourt.
In the regular season, homecourt was worth just 2.5 points. However, in this postseason, we've witnessed significant homecourt swings. Take the Golden State Warriors versus Houston Rockets series as an example. In Game 4, the Warriors were 3.5-point favorites at home, but in Game 5, the Rockets closed as 4.5-point favorites. That's an 8-point swing just due to the change in venue. The series between the Pistons and Knicks also saw similar swings from venue to venue.
Since 2021, the average net rating in non-garbage time for home teams has increased by an average of 2.68 points from the regular season to the postseason. Over this span, home teams have posted an average net rating of at least +4.3 in the playoffs. As of Monday evening, the average home team net rating in non-garbage time stands at +3.1 – the lowest average net rating for home teams since the 2017 postseason, according to Cleaning The Glass.
Average Non-Garbage Time Net Rating, Regular Season to Postseason
2025: +1.7 -> +3.0 (+1.3)
2024: +2.3 -> +5.1 (+2.8)
2023: +2.7 -> +4.3 (+1.6)
2022: +1.9 -> +4.7 (+2.8)
2021: +1.1 -> +4.6 (+3.5)
While it's possible that we witness this trend continue until the NBA Finals draw to a close, it's difficult to say for sure. The betting market adjusts to team performances throughout the season, and specific adjustments based solely on road performance in the playoffs are not explicitly mentioned. Until we see some indication that the market has adjusted, those who handicap the league daily might want to adjust their assumptions about homecourt in their predictions. Alternatively, one could hold out hope that home teams will find their groove and regain their usual advantage, although this strategy may come with some losses, as those betting on the home teams in the first three games of the second round have learned.
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- The ongoing NBA postseason has shown that underdog teams, such as the ones that have mastered stunning upsets with odds of +280 on the moneyline, are barking loudly, especially during away games.
- The trend of road teams dominating the playoffs is challenging the traditional idea of homecourt advantage, with the betting market potentially undervaluing the numerical value of playing at home.
- In the last eight postseason contests, road teams have posted a 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS run, while home teams have a 25-21 SU record but a 24-21-1 ATS record.
- Home teams' net ratings in the postseason have increased significantly compared to the regular season, with an average net rating of at least +4.3 since 2021.
- While it's uncertain whether this trend will continue until the NBA Finals, those who handicap the league daily might need to adjust their assumptions about homecourt in their predictions, as the betting market has yet to fully reflect this shift.
