NBA Playoffs Heat Up: Home-court edge fades as visiting sides keep sizzling win streak
Going Against the Grain: Defying Homecourt Advantage in the 2025 NBA Playoffs
Aaron Gordon's game-winning three-pointer isn't just another exciting playoff moment. It's a symbol of the unexpected twist in this year's NBA postseason, where underdogs on the road are shaking things up. In the second round alone, underrated teams have been barking louder than my mom's Chihuahua on Amazon delivery day.
Three games in, underdogs are riding high with a perfect 3-0 SU streak. And it's not just a fluke—the odds were stacked against them. With odds of at least +280 on the moneyline in each game, a parlay of all three would have returned a whopping +7067. Yet, here we are.
But the surprises don't end there. Across the postseason, road teams are proving that homecourt advantage means less than it once did. Since Monday, road teams have been unstoppable, kicking off an impressive 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS run in the last eight games. Home teams, meanwhile, have gone an evenly matched but less impressive 25-21 SU and 24-21-1 ATS[1].
The betting market seems to be overvaluing homecourt, but the results paint a different picture. In the postseason as a whole, the median home win margin has been a modest +2, with an average of just 2.8 points[1]. Compare this to the regular season, where homecourt advantage was worth a maximum of 2.5 points[1].
Take, for instance, the first-round series between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets. In Game 4, the Warriors were 3.5-point favorites at home, yet lost. In Game 5, the Rockets were 4.5-point favorites on their home turf, but narrowly won. That's an 8-point swing, all due to the change in venue[1]. The same trend is visible in the series between the Pistons and Knicks.
Since 2021, home teams have seen their average net rating increase by an average of 2.68 points from regular season to postseason. As of early May 2025, the average home team net rating is a more modest +3.1. This is on track to be the lowest average net rating for home teams since the 2017 playoffs, according to Cleaning The Glass[1].
Is this trend set to continue until the NBA Finals, or will home teams adapt and rally to take back control? Only time will tell. But for now, the edge of playing at home seems to have lost some of its usual potency. Those who make a living betting on the NBA might want to reconsider their approach to homecourt, at least until the market adjusts[1].
Or, perhaps the home teams will regain their footing, and the traditional advantage of playing on homecourt will return. Taking this approach might mean a few bumps along the way for those betting on home teams. But as those who backed the home teams in the first three games of the second round have found out, betting on the underdogs can sometimes pay off in a big way.
Additional Articles from the Author:
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- NBA Playoffs Predictions Today: Best Bets and Player Props - May 6th
In the 2025 NBA Playoffs, basketball underdogs on the road are making their presence known, with a surprising 3-0 SU streak against the moneyline odds of at least +280 in each game, defying the homecourt advantage during the second round. Across the postseason, the sports betting market appears to overvalue homecourt, while the results indicate that road teams are proving to be formidable opponents, with an impressive 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS run in the last eight games.
In the postseason as a whole, home teams' median win margin has been a modest +2, significantly lower than the regular-season homecourt advantage worth a maximum of 2.5 points. This trend has been observed in notable series like the Golden State Warriors versus Houston Rockets, where there was an 8-point swing due to the change in venue, and the same can be seen in the series between the Pistons and Knicks.
