NBA Playoffs Game 1 Preview: Forecasting Nuggets vs Thunder, Top Picks, and Odds
Game Preview: Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder - The Thunder Stampede Arrives
Get ready for a thrilling matchup tonight as the Denver Nuggets square off against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of their second round NBA Playoff series. The game tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, with live broadcast on TNT.
The Thunder are currently 10.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Thunder -10.5), with the over/under set at 228.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -470 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +360 to pull off the upset.
The Nuggets fought their way into this series with a dominant Game 7 win in their opening round against the Clippers. However, they face a daunting challenge against the Thunder – a well-rested, young, and hungry team known for their defensive prowess and astonishing point differential throughout the season.
Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Game 1
My Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 1 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread. The best line for this pick is currently available at BetMGM. Always remember to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
Spread
My Pick:
Total
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Odds for May 5
Moneyline
| Nuggets Odds || --- || Spread | Total | Moneyline || 10.5-110 | 228.5-110o / -110u | 360 |
| Thunder Odds || --- || Spread | Total | Moneyline || -10.5-110 | 228.5-110o / -110u | -470 |
10.5-110
DraftKings NBA odds here Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -10.5* Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 228.5 total points* Nuggets vs. Thunder moneyline: Nuggets +360, Thunder -470* Nuggets vs. Thunder best bet:
228.5-110o / -110u
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview for Game 1
360
This matchup seems like a hostile environment for the Nuggets as they face the Thunder's relentless defense and formidable offense.
The Nuggets went 2-2 against the Thunder this season, but their performance in the two losses was uncompetitive. Although the matchups aren't the primary concern, Denver might find it hard to navigate around Lu Dort and the Thunder's defensive front.
However, Nikola Jokic presents an excellent weapon for attacking the Thunder's defensive strengths in the paint. Chet Holmgren, albeit an elite defender, may struggle to contain Jokic's wild and unpredictable post-up shots. Foul calls against Holmgren would significantly improve Jokic's chances against one-on-one coverage, such as Isaiah Hartenstein.
On the defensive end, the Nuggets struggle against the Thunder's offense, which hinges around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's ability to exploit matchups. Denver often switches with Jamal Murray on all guard-guard screens, which opens up opportunities for Gilgeous-Alexander to take advantage.
If Denver decides to blitz with any screen action involving Murray, it could alter the dynamic and potentially move Gilgeous-Alexander away from a scoring threat, opening up opportunities for spot-up shooters.
Spread
Game 1 Predictions
Total
Thunder -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline
The Thunder are in a favorable position, given the Nuggets' exhausting first-round series and the team's potential turnover problems. Denver's defense might struggle to keep up with the Thunder's relentless offense.
Thunder Team Total Over 118.5 (-120)
-10.5-110
Home teams in situations like these often see success with their team totals, and the Thunder should push hard in this game, creating turnovers and easy baskets on a gassed Nuggets team.
228.5-110o / -110u
Jalen Williams Over 5.5 Assists (+150)
-470
Denver ranks 29th in assists defense against Williams' position, making him a good candidate for accumulating assists, especially against a second unit with limited secondary defenders.
Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105)
Holmgren is primed for a big series, frustrating the Nuggets with his ability to score, rebound, and assist. Denver might leave him open from beyond the arc, and he'll be a force in the paint, especially on the glass.
Game 1 Best Bets
- Thunder -10.5 (-110)
- Thunder Team Total Over 118.5 (-120)
- Jalen Williams Over 5.5 Assists (+150)
- Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105)
- Thunder Alternate Spread -19.5 (+300)
In the highly anticipated Game 1 of the second round NBA Playoff series, the Oklahoma City Thunder, currently 10.5-point favorites over the Denver Nuggets on the spread, are set to capitalize on their home court advantage at the Paycom Center. With the Thunder's dynamic offense and impressive defensive prowess, they are poised to cover the spread and secure a winning margin.
However, Nikola Jokic, Denver's star player, presents a formidable challenge, as his post-up shots could potentially trouble Thunder's elite defender Chet Holmgren. Nonetheless, the Thunder's starting lineup, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, could exploit Denver's defensive switches and take advantage of opportunities presented by the Nuggets' potential exhaustion from their grueling first-round series.
