NBA Playoffs Game 1 Forecast, Wagers, Odds: Top Picks for Nuggets vs Thunder Matchup

Raw and Rollin'

Tonight, the Denver Nuggets will clash against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of their second round NBA Playoff series. Kickoff's at 9:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in OKC, and you can catch all the action on TNT.

The Thunder are riding high as 10.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Thunder -10.5), with the over/under set at 228.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a whopping -470 favorite to win outright, while Denver is an underdog at +360 to pull off the upset.

The Nuggets outlasted their opponents in a thrilling Game 7 just a few days ago, earning their place in this challenging matchup against a rested, hungry Thunder team boasting the best defense in the league and the best point differential in NBA history. Can the Nuggets rally to surprise Oklahoma City in Game 1? Or will the Thunder easy street towards a possible Finals appearance? Let's dive into my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for May 5, 2023!

Sweet TNT - My NBA Insider's Game 1 Best Bet

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction, Picks for Game 1

Spread

My top Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 1 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But remember, always shop around for the best price using our live NBA odds page.

Total

My Pick:

Moneyline

Nuggets vs Thunder Betting Odds for May 5, 2023

| Nuggets Odds || --- || Spread | Total | Moneyline || 10.5-110 | 228.5-110o / -110u | 360 |

10.5-110

| Thunder Odds || --- || Spread | Total | Moneyline || -10.5-110 | 228.5-110o / -110u | -470 |

228.5-110o / -110u

DraftKingsNBA odds here Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -10.5* Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 228.5 total points* Nuggets vs. Thunder moneyline: Nuggets +360, Thunder -470* Nuggets vs. Thunder best bet:

360

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview for Game 1

My Game 1 best bet for tonight is Thunder -10.5. Let's call it straight: This is a terrible spot for the Nuggets.

Teams coming off a Game 7 with less than three days' rest versus a team with more than four days' rest are a dismal 4-19 SU (44.4%), 7-16 ATS (30%) since 2003. And when these double digit underdogs get that much rest? They're just 1-7 SU (12.5%) and 3-5 ATS (37.5%).

Seven-game series are pure draining. They're exhausting, both physically and mentally, and the Nuggets' first-round series against the Clippers was as grueling as any. It was a tough, tiring, and mentally taxing series with few resting opportunities.

The Nuggets finished up on Saturday, drove to OKC on Sunday, and are set to play again tonight. It's just the worst spots in the worst of circumstances.

Spread

Now let's hit the hoops.

Total

The Nuggets went 2-2 SU against the Thunder this season. However, those wins were quite narrow, while both losses were pretty lopsided. The matchups aren't really the problem here.

Moneyline

Lu Dort and the Thunder's wing contingent are sure to give Jamal Murray fits, and that could disrupt the Nuggets' two-man game. Nikola Jokic, though, is a fantastic weapon for attacking the Thunder's strong points in the paint.

Chet Holmgren has been an elite defender against Jokic because he blocks all his wild scrambling and unpredictable post-up shots (including the infamous Sombor Shuffle). If Jokic can draw a few fouls against him, he has a much more favorable matchup against one-on-one coverage from Isaiah Hartenstein.

-10.5-110

The Thunder will then bring help, leaving role players to drain threes. Russell Westbrook played outstanding in the Clippers series, and he'll be critical in this matchup.

228.5-110o / -110u

On defense, the Nuggets' weakest link is revealed.

-470

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best players in the league at exploiting matchups on switches, and Denver comes swapping with Jamal Murray for guard-guard screens. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will run wild on him.

If Denver changes its strategy and blitzes any screen action involving Murray, it'll change the game's dynamic, moving Shai away from a scoring threat. That opens up easier looks for spot-up shooters and assists for Isaiah Hartenstein ... and potentially Holmgren in the short-roll.

Game 1 NBA Predictions for Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder -10.5 (-110)
Thunder Team Total Over 118.5 (-120)
Jalen Williams Over 5.5 Assists (+150)
Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105)
Thunder Alternate Spread -19.5 (+300)

Cliffnotes:The Thunder are heavily favored due to the Nuggets' exhausting Game 7, and the Thunder's defensive prowess. Expect Though to cover the spread, but beware of their team total over due to the gassed Nuggets possibly slowing them down. Jalen Williams has shown potential against the Nuggets' defense, while Chet Holmgren's versatility might lead to a strong showing against this smaller Denver squad. Look for the Thunder's alternate spread (-19.5) as an intriguing long-shot.

Enrichment Data:

Historical betting trends for NBA teams playing with less than three days of rest after a Game 7 versus a team with more than four days of rest are scarce. However, we can consider some patterns that could impact such scenarios:

Rest Advantage: Teams with more rest generally have an advantage, thanks to better recovery time and preparation. This might affect performance and betting odds.
Home Court Advantage in Game 7s: Home teams usually perform well in Game 7s, winning approximately 76.7% of the time[4]. Though the Thunder have home-court advantage in these playoffs, they've already played a few games there, while the Nuggets are coming off a Game 7 on the road.
Play-In and Playoff Trends: While there are trends for home teams in Play-In games and Game 7s, these do not explicitly address the rest disadvantage issue[3][4].

Overall, considering the grueling Game 7, exhaustion, and defensive matchups, the Thunder have a strong chance of earning a win and covering the spread against the Nuggets.

Tonight, the Nuggets face a challenging matchup against the Thunder, who have the best defense and point differential in NBA history.
The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread, with the over/under set at 228.5 total points.
Jamal Murray might struggle against the Thunder's wing contingent, particularly Lu Dort, in tonight's game.
My Game 1 best bet is on the Thunder to cover the spread with the best line currently available at BetMGM.
Chet Holmgren has shown potential against Jokic's post-up shots and his matchup against one-on-one coverage from Isaiah Hartenstein could be favorable.