NBA Playoffs Choose-ups for Today: Top Wagers and Player Props - May 10th Analysis
The NBA Playoffs have been scintillating, and we're giving our VSiN subscribers a profitable ride! Head to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub** for all our postseason content. I'll continue to provide NBA best bets and player props throughout the playoffs, while occasionally writing up features on major league events. So, stay tuned to my work over the coming weeks. With that out of the way, let's dive into some NBA best bets and player props for May 10th. Don't forget to check our Pro Picks page (linked below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Pro Picks page for May 10th
NBA Best Bets Today - May 10
Game 3: Boston Celtics at New York Knicks - 3:30 pm ETGame 3: Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors - 8:30 pm ET
I've been mulling over the idea of laying the points with Boston since Game 2 ended, but I can't seem to pull the trigger. Maybe that'll be a play I make in the Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge, but I'm not comfy doing it with my own stash. Still, I believe the Celtics will win this game. I'm parlaying Celtics moneyline with Timberwolves moneyline at plus-money odds.
With the Celtics, I feel they'll find a way to get it going. Boston has easily built 20-point leads in this series, and they've done so despite some pretty rough play. The Celtics are just 25-for-100 from 3 in this series, which is bizarre for a team that nailed 36.8% from deep in the regular season. Granted, some of the shots Boston's taking aren't great – see the bad step-back 3s from Jayson Tatum – but they've also missed some wide-open looks. The Knicks definitely stepped up their defense in the third and fourth quarters last game, but the Celtics had their chances to close it out. They just didn't capitalize. So, with the Celtics due for a big offensive explosion, it's tough not to fancy them to win – even with this game being played at Madison Square Garden.
In reality, the Celtics' defensive rating for the last two games is 100.5, which is better than the Thunder's regular-season average and we've called them a historic defense all year. I also think Joe Mazzulla is the superior coach to Tom Thibodeau. Although the first few games in this series haven't looked good for Mazzulla, he's got time to figure things out. Boston is 5-3 straight-up when trailing in a playoff series under Mazzulla, and they're 34-13 when playing with two days of rest with him as coach. On the other hand, the Knicks are 23-40 SU as a home underdog under Thibodeau.
As for the other game, it's hard to imagine the Warriors finding the offensive firepower they need to win. Sure, the Timberwolves haven't always been consistent offensively in these playoffs, but the talent gap when Stephen Curry is out is colossal right now. I'm definitely expecting more effort from Golden State than we saw in Game 2, as they were playing a deflated squad against a desperate one. However, this is a Timberwolves team that was Top 5 in adjusted defensive rating during the regular season (110.5), and they're third in the NBA in defensive rating (106.6) since the playoffs started. So, with Curry out – arguably the best shot-maker in NBA history – I'll take my chances with the Timberwolves winning this one outright. One thing I can't shake is that Steve Kerr is being forced to play guys he hasn't trusted all year long. Buddy Hield, whose minutes fluctuated throughout the regular season, is suddenly seeing 30+ minutes a night, and he's highly exploitable defensively. And Jonathan Kuminga is suddenly back in the rotation, a player Kerr has no faith in at all. This is a tough situation that only "Playoff Jimmy" can save. And we haven't seen the best of Jimmy Butler since he took a hard fall against the Rockets.
PARLAY: Celtics ML & Timberwolves ML (+113 - 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today - May 10
Game 3: Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors - 8:30 pm ET
Since the start of the postseason, the Timberwolves have an Efficiency Differential of +6.7 with Naz Reid on the floor. Meanwhile, the team has an Efficiency Differential of -10.5 with Rudy Gobert on the floor. I don't want to downplay Gobert's play throughout his career, but Reid is playing 32 minutes per game in this series, and Gobert is down to 26.5 minutes per game. That's a significant surge for Reid and a big drop for Gobert. And I don't see that changing much as the series progresses, especially with the Timberwolves needing some offense.
Reid is a fantastic shooter as a small-big, hitting 45.9% of his 3s since the start of the playoffs. He's also comfortable attacking the rim, where he can finish with either hand. I don't think the Warriors have a great strategy to counter Reid's skillset, and his defense isn't an option with the Warriors' roster as it stands. There's not enough floor spacing to force Chris Finch's hand in taking Reid out of the game.
With all that in mind, I like Reid to score at least 12 points in Game 3. I'm also throwing a few dollars on him to score 18+.
Pick: Reid Over 11.5 Points (-120 - 1.5 units) & Reid To Score 18+ (+310 - 0.5 units)
Additional Plays
This is where I'll include any late-added plays, teasers/parlays, or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don't want to miss anything. It's always possible that I'll add something to my card.
2024-25 NBA Record: 408-416-2 (+7.31 units)
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NBA Playoffs Predictions Today: Best Bets and Player Props - May 9th
- In the NBA Playoffs, the writer believes the Boston Celtics will win Game 3 against the New York Knicks and suggests a parlay with the Minnesota Timberwolves moneyline for plus-money odds.
- The writer implies that Nash Reid of the Minnesota Timberwolves will score at least 12 points in Game 3 against the Golden State Warriors, and also suggests wagering on him to score 18+ points.
- The writer mentions that they frequently add late-added plays, teasers/parlays, or in-season futures to their card, and encourages readers to check back before game tip-off.
- The writer has a 2024-25 NBA record of 408-416-2 with a +7.31 unit profit.
- The writer suggests checking the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub and the Pro Picks page for more NBA best bets and player props, especially before game tip-off as the writer may add picks throughout the day.
