NBA Playoffs 2025 Matchup: Timberwolves vs Lakers, Game 1: Individual Player Predictions
Chief Article:
This epic clash scheduled for the first day of the 2025 NBA postseason pits the third-ranked LA Lakers against the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves at Crypto.com Arena. Here are our top three player prop picks to consider for this blockbuster fixture, including an OVER on 6.5 assists for the legendary LeBron James (-136) on April 19.
Series Synopsis:
No. 3 LA Lakers vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Fixture Preview:Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers, 8:30 p.m. ET
LeBron James OVER 6.5 Assists vs. Timberwolves (-136 at Betting Sites)
While the LeBron James era continues for the purple and gold, the spotlight has now shifted beyond him with the arrival of Luka Doncic in Tinseltown, albeit unintentionally. We've witnessed Doncic's exceptional prowess against the Timberwolves in the 2024 Western Conference finals, including a famous game-winning trey over Rudy Gobert's outstretched arm in Game 2 at the Target Center, scoring 32 or more points in four out of five encounters. This year, the excitement surrounds Doncic in a Lakers uniform, yet we can't neglect James' contribution to the equation after the numbers he recently produced at the age of 40.
The ideal situation for the Lakers is for James to take a backseat to Doncic, particularly early on. Father Time may be undefeated, but James' longevity could deceive you. To have genuine aspirations of a championship, James can't be drained after the first round and maintain a high level over the following weeks. That's why his assists prop is so enticing, as if the scoring responsibilities fall on Doncic, and even Austin Reaves to a lesser degree, James can focus on running the offense and generating scoring opportunities for his teammates.
James averaged 8.2 assists for the seventh-highest number of his illustrious 22-year career. In the 79 games he played, he beat the 6.5 assists mark 52 times, achieving it with an impressive success rate of 66%. Although he failed to surpass this total versus Minnesota, his supporting cast has undergone significant changes since then.
Rudy Gobert UNDER 23.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Lakers (-140 at Sportsbooks)
Gobert's height and reach as a 7-foot-1 center might seem advantageous, given the Lakers' lack of interior size to counter him. However, the Lakers could elect to play small-ball as frequently as possible to keep Gobert off the court, potentially even giving James minutes at the five position to make Gobert more of a liability than an asset.
Head coach JJ Redick is well-versed in basketball strategy, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Lakers deploy small-ball lineups almost immediately to gauge Minnesota's response. It's worth noting that when Gobert averaged a double-double of 14 points and 13 rebounds against the Lakers during the regular season, he did so during the Anthony Davis era before the Doncic deal went through ahead of the trade deadline. Since then, the opposing roster has undergone a significant transformation, so what used to be an advantage for the Timberwolves against this specific opponent may no longer hold true.
We'll just have to see what impact Gobert ultimately has, but Minnesota boasts frontcourt options who are more mobile and versatile, such as Naz Reid and Julius Randle. Coach Chris Finch may opt to go small himself if needed. While Gobert did surpass the 23.5 combined points and rebounds mark in nine of his last 11 games, these circumstances are different, and a Lakers team at home in the playoffs presents a far more formidable challenge than any of the teams the Timberwolves faced during that stretch.
Naz Reid OVER 16.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Lakers (-122 at Betting Platforms)
This Naz Reid wager coincides with the belief that Minnesota will need to keep Gobert on the bench more than they'd prefer. Last season's Sixth Man of the Year is an excellent depth player for just such a series, as his height of 6-foot-9 and weight of 265 pounds enable him to do things defensively that Gobert can't, primarily move away from the basket and maintain position when squaring up ball-handlers on the perimeter.
Reid's numbers this year (14.7 points, 6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists) were actually stronger than when he won the John Havlicek trophy (13.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists) the previous year. This could be explained by his minutes climbing from 24.2 to 27.5, but that evidence also indicates a promising role in the playoffs, given he averaged 22.5 during the 2024 run.
Reaching an OVER of 16.5 points and rebounds happened 49 times out of a possible 80 (61.3%), making this a solid bet if Minnesota elects to bench Gobert more frequently. However, you can't foresee something like that, but the writing appears to be on the wall here with Reid having a larger impact on this series than his teammate. We'll find out a lot after the first game on April 19 and adjust our approach accordingly.
Enrichment Data:
General:
The 2025 NBA Playoffs opening-day matchup between the Lakers and Timberwolves (April 19) saw Minnesota prevail 117-95[4], but Game 1 player performances offer insights for prop bet analysis moving forward. For Game 3 (April 25), which is currently ongoing, as well as future games in the series:
LeBron James
- Scoring: Demonstrated secondary chances and mid-range efficiency in Game 1, anticipate 27+ points as a baseline, with possible increased volume if Anthony Davis draws defensive attention.
- Rebounding: Aggressive on the glass in initial gameplay (per Game 1 footage), making 8+ rebounds plausible against Minnesota's size.
- Assists: Expected to deliver 6-8 assists due to playmaking against Minnesota's perimeter defenders, such as McDaniels[2][3].
Rudy Gobert
- Rebounding/Blocks: Stout in paint defense during Game 3 sequences[3], projecting 10+ rebounds and 2-3 blocks per game against Lakers' drives.
- Scoring: Likely 10-12 points unless lobs/putbacks become frequent[2][3].
Naz Reid
- 3-Point Shooting: Drained multiple clutch treys in Game 1[2], meaning 2.5+ threes are a strong bet if Minnesota spacing the floor.
- Scoring: 15+ points feasible as sixth-man spark against Lakers' second-unit defense[2][4].
- In the 2025 NBA playoffs, LeBron James, despite the arrival of Luka Doncic in Los Angeles, continues to deliver impressive performance, as evidenced by his 8.2 assists average, which was the seventh-highest of his career.
- For the Minnesota Timberwolves, Naz Reid could play a significant role following the team's potential strategy to keep Rudy Gobert off the court, making Reid's over 16.5 points + rebounds prop an attractive bet.
- The Lakers might employ small-ball lineups to counter Gobert's height and reach, which could lead to LeBron James playing some minutes at the center position.
- In the first day clash of the 2025 NBA postseason between the Lakers and Timberwolves, LeBron James' over 6.5 assists prop (-136 at Betting Sites) offers a potential value, especially if the scoring responsibilities fall on Doncic and Austin Reaves, allowing James to focus on running the offense and generating scoring opportunities for his teammates.
