NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday, 7th May
🏀 NBA Player Prop Picks for Tonight, May 8th 👑
With the playoffs heating up, tonight's matchups offer a tantalizing blend of intensity, adjustments, and opportunities - making player prop markets a shrewd bettor's playground. Tonight's four-game slate features Cavs vs. Celtics, Nets vs. Heat, Grizzlies vs. Jazz, and Warriors vs. Suns. Let's dive into my top prop picks and strategies for these high-stakes games.
The pressure is on as several series are knotted at 1-1, and teams will be angling for the all-important Game 3 victory. In this article, I'll leverage a blend of advanced analytics, rebounding and assist opportunity metrics, historical performance, and likely coaching adjustments to spot value in the player prop markets. These aren't knee-jerk reactions - they're based on what's predictable heading into the critical Game 3s. So, let's get to it!
James Harden Over 29.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)
This total is a tad under Harden's season average of 30.5 points but don't let that fool you. In Game 2, he scored 33 points in a winning effort, connecting on half his 18 three-point attempts and 14 of 16 free throws. Harden's dominance has spilled over into the playoffs, as he's now scored 30+ points in five consecutive games, posting 31 and 40 points in the first two Heat series games. With no signs of slowing down, expect the points to keep pouring in as the series shifts to Miami.
Rudy Gobert Over 14.5 Rebounds (+110, BetMGM)
The defensive anchor of the Utah Jazz has proven his rebounding efficiency even in limited minutes. In Game 2, he secured 15 rebounds in 33 minutes, a performance that speaks volumes about his rebounding floor going forward. One adjustment we might see from Quin Snyder is increased minutes for Gobert, as the Jazz need him to control the paint and limit second-chance opportunities for Memphis. With a 26.7 rebound percentage throughout the regular season and 37.5 rebound percentage in the playoffs, Gobert is poised to seize every rebounding opportunity presented.
Donovan Mitchell Over 24.5 Points (+100, FanDuel)
With the series on the line, Mitchell's ability to score from all three levels will be crucial for the Jazz. In both Games 1 and 2, Mitchell averaged 28 points, showcasing his shooting efficiency and creativity in the clutch. The Grizzlies have yet to find an effective defensive strategy to contain Mitchell, and as Game 3 unfolds, it's likely we'll see more opportunities for Mitchell to put up 25+ points.
Luka Doncic Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120, FanDuel)
Luka's production is a must for a Dallas team looking to stay alive in the playoffs. In Game 2, he registered 33 points, 14 rebounds, and 9 assists, falling just short of this triple-double prop. Expect Luka to maintain his productivity in this series, given he's been averaging 35.6 PRA throughout the playoffs despite the Mavericks' struggles. With a supporting cast weakened by injuries, Doncic will take on a burdensome load to keep the team competitive and extend the series.
Steph Curry Over 9.5 Three-Pointers Made (+163, DraftKings)
Steph's playoff performance has been exceptional, and his three-point shooting prowess is at an all-time high. In Game 2, he connected on 8 of his 18 three-point attempts, and if he can sustain his shooting hot streak in Game 3, we could see him blowing past this prop. With the Suns' perimeter defense struggling to keep up, Steph has more than enough opportunities to knock down nine or more threes. This generous +163 line presents a profitable opportunity for those looking to capitalize on Steph's exploitation of the Suns' defense.
In the NFL, Boston Celtics' defenders might find it difficult to contain James Harden as he targets scoring over 29.5 points in tonight's game against the Cavs, owing to his recent playoff dominance.
Rudy Gobert's proven rebounding efficiency, coupled with increased minutes, could see him secure over 14.5 rebounds in Utah Jazz's matchup against the Grizzlies, given the potential coaching adjustments by Quin Snyder.
Donovan Mitchell, known for his scoring ability from all three levels, is expected to surpass 24.5 points in the Jazz vs. Grizzlies game, as no effective defensive strategy has been found against him so far.
Luka Doncic's switchability and productivity make him a strong contender to exceed 35.5 points + rebounds + assists for the Dallas Mavericks in their game against the Suns, especially given his load-bearing role in a weakened supporting cast.
Lastly, Steph Curry's phenomonal three-point shooting could lead him to surpass 9.5 three-pointers made in the Warriors vs. Suns game, thanks to the Suns' perimeter defense struggling to keep up with the Golden State star.
