NBA Player Predictions for Monday, May 12th: Anticipated Individual Statistic Achievements in Today's NBA Games

Twitter 🐦 Facebook 🔔 Email## Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday, May 12

Yo, I'm back after a tight first week, finishing 6-4 (+1.23 units) with a bunch of close calls and big wins. Tonight's two-game NBA slate brings us a couple of crucial Game Four matchups: the Celtics look to even the series at Madison Square Garden after dropping two of the opening three games to the Knicks, while the Timberwolves aim to take full control against a Warriors team that'll be looking to respond at home. I've dove deep into both matchups, using advanced stats, potential opportunities, and matchup trends to identify the top player props worth targeting tonight. Let's keep this roll going and cash in on those edges.

Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)

Jayson Tatum has struggled mightily as a scorer in this series, and OG Anunoby is a big reason why. Across the three games, Anunoby has matched up with Tatum on 119 defensive possessions and shut him down. In those 24 minutes and 53 seconds of direct coverage, Tatum has managed just six total points, shooting 2-of-10 from the field and committing three turnovers. That's right, you read that correctly. Such individual defensive dominance is exactly what the Knicks envisioned when they picked up Anunoby - and it's playing out just as planned.

Tatum's shooting lines in this series have been sluggish: 7-of-23 in Game 1 (23 points), 5-of-19 in Game 2 (13 points), and 8-of-20 in Game Three (22 points). Even though he's still contributing in other areas and logging heavy minutes, his shooting efficiency has plummeted. The Celtics keep relying on him to create, but New York's defense - anchored by Anunoby's ability to contain without help - has forced him into tough, contested looks throughout the series. Unless something extraordinary happens, Tatum clearing 28 points seems like a long shot in this current primary matchup.

OG Anunoby Under 14.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)

OG Anunoby's impressive Game One scoring outburst appears to be an outlier. In the series opener, he dropped 29 points on 20 shots, including 20 points in the second half alone and a red-hot 4-for-6 shooting clip from three. But since then, the regression has been sharp and predictable. In Games Two and Three combined, Anunoby has taken just 15 shots and tallied only seven points. The reason? He's been pouring all his offensive energy into his primary role: locking up Tatum, as I mentioned above.

The Knicks have asked Anunoby to expend maximum effort defensively, and it's worked - but it's also had a cost: fewer touches, fewer shot attempts, and less overall offensive involvement. Historically, this has been a consistent trend - Anunoby has now gone under this 14.5-point line in 27 out of 28 career games against the Celtics. That kind of dominance by Boston's defense against him isn't a coincidence. This line is still too high for a player who's overwhelmed by taking on the team's most important defensive matchup.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (-125, FanDuel)

Karl-Anthony Towns continues to be a force on the glass in this series, passing this number in all three games so far - and doing it with gusto. He grabbed 13 rebounds on 21 chances in Game One despite dealing with foul trouble, followed that with 17 boards on 26 chances in Game Two, and added 15 more on 21 chances in Game Three. His hustle and power have been essential in keeping the Knicks competitive, especially as the Celtics thrive on second-chance looks and long-range attempts.

Even with a minor finger injury on his non-shooting hand, there's no reason to think Towns will be limited for Game Four. New York can't afford to lose the rebounding battle, and the responsibility falls on KAT. He's demonstrated his ability to control the glass no matter the situation, be it foul trouble or game script. This line still represents value given his consistent workload and high rebounding upside. Expect him to log around 35-40 minutes again in this spot, and if he does, 12-plus boards should follow again.

Rudy Gobert 5+ Alt First Quarter Rebounds (+340, DraftKings)

This alternative first-quarter rebound prop on Rudy Gobert is offering a fat payday at +340, especially since he's been so dominating early in games during this series. He grabbed five rebounds in just eight minutes in Game One, five in nine minutes in Game Two, and seven in 10 minutes in Game Three, even before setting the tone on the glass from the jump. The Timberwolves have consistently utilized him to anchor their defense at the start of games, and the Warriors simply don't have a reliable big who can compete with his size, athleticism, and reaching ability.

Trayce Jackson-Davis got the Game Three start, but whether it's him, Kevon Looney, Draymond Green, or Quinton Post, none of Golden State's options can keep up with Gobert's rebounding reach and positioning. Gobert is averaging 11.0 rebounds on 21.0 rebounding chances per game in the series, including 3.3 offensive boards on 8.3 offensive chances - elite numbers across the board. With Minnesota likely sticking to the script and giving him 8-to-10 minutes in the first, this is a smart long-odds play to target with a quick potential payout.

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In light of Jayson Tatum's struggles against OG Anunoby's defense, it seems unlikely that he'll clear 28 points in their primary matchup tonight. On the other hand, Karl-Anthony Towns has been a dominant force on the glass in this series and should continue to be a rebounding threat with 12 or more boards expected.

OG Anunoby's offensive contribution has been secondary due to his primary defensive role against Tatum. His scoring prowess appeared to be an outlier in Game One, as he's shown marked regression since then. Rudy Gobert, on the other hand, has been dominant early in games during this series, making the +340 prop on him grabbing 5 or more alternate first quarter rebounds an enticing long-odds play.