Navigating between Crisis Management and Optimism
The ongoing negotiations between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding Ukraine's future remain uncertain, as both leaders aim to facilitate a direct summit between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The latest round of negotiations took place under the leadership of French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, joined by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, EU Council President António Costa, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Despite the diplomatic efforts, the prospects of a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy are uncertain, with Russia stalling and demanding inclusion in any security discussions, specifically seeking guarantees over the Donbas region.
Putin's key demands include no NATO membership for Ukraine, no Western troops on Ukrainian soil, and control or recognition of Russian authority over the Donbas region. However, Putin reportedly signaled a slight softening compared to demands in 2024, agreeing to freeze the front lines in some areas like Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia and potentially relinquishing control of some territories captured previously.
European countries, including those represented by leaders from London, Paris, and Berlin, have presented demands primarily focused on ensuring that any security guarantees for Ukraine must be tangible and effective. They insist that security arrangements cannot be superficial, warning that otherwise Moscow would treat cease-fires as temporary pauses before resuming offensives. They also oppose Russia having a veto or primary role in shaping Ukraine’s postwar security.
European countries, alongside the US, are working on concrete postwar security packages involving weapons, intelligence-sharing, and joint defense planning.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to face ongoing Russian attacks, with President Zelenskyy condemning these as proof that Russia does not genuinely want peace talks to succeed. Zelenskyy rejects surrendering Ukrainian territory, emphasizing Ukraine's constitutional prerogative over its lands and calling for sustained diplomatic pressure on Russia.
Trump has expressed cautious optimism but indicated that within about two weeks it will become clearer if a deal is possible; otherwise, he may pursue alternative approaches.
The meeting between Trump and Putin is planned in Anchorage, Alaska, with Trump's spokesperson stating that a deal is not expected from the meeting, and that the summit is an "exercise in listening" to better understand how to end the war in Ukraine.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Zelenskyy have coordinated with the heads of state and government of France, Britain, Poland, Italy, and Finland before the meeting with Trump. Merz emphasized the need for "robust security guarantees" for Ukraine and the importance of continuing to strengthen the Ukrainian army.
Merz spelled out five demands of the Europeans for the meeting between Trump and Putin, including preventing the "demilitarization" of Ukraine and preventing any future invasion by Russia. Merz and Zelenskyy have also discussed a joint transatlantic strategy to support Ukraine and put pressure on Russia.
As the negotiations continue, the overall peace process remains uncertain amid continued conflict on the ground, with both sides holding firm to their demands.
- The ongoing political negotiations, involving leaders from the European Union like Emmanuel Macron, Ursula von der Leyen, and António Costa, emphasize the EU's responsibility to ensure that any security arrangements for Ukraine are implemented consistently with the principles of the United Nations Charter.
- As the EU and the US work on concrete postwar security packages for Ukraine, it is crucial for the European Union to uphold its stance against Russia having a veto or primary role in shaping Ukraine’s postwar security, as part of the broader general-news agenda of maintaining peace and security in Eastern Europe.
