NATO was cautioned by Germany about the presence of "little green men" in Estonia.
Zero-bounds Assistant
Russia's desire to drive out the U.S. from Europe is apparent, as per Bruno Kahl, president of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, in a podcast with Table.Briefings. Instead of resorting to massive bombings or sending tank armies, Kahl believes that Russia might use smaller, sneaky tactics like sending "little green men" to Estonia, disguising it as protection for oppressed Russian minorities.
According to Kahl, Russia aims to expand its influence westward, hoping to push NATO back to its late 1990s state. Russia thinks of Ukraine merely as a stepping stone towards the West. Moreover, Moscow is plotting "a grand scenario for a major conflict with the West post-Ukraine war".
Europe, as per Kahl, needs to transform into a formidable deterrent against any external threat. In response, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is supposedly calling for a significant increase in the bloc's collective defense ahead of the NATO summit on June 24-25.
However, Putin disagrees, stating that Russia has no motive to wage war against NATO countries. He ascribes the military operation in Ukraine to NATO's eastward expansion.
Overall, European intelligence and NATO leadership raise concerns about Russia's growing military capabilities and the possibility of large-scale war within this decade. To counter these threats, Europe is advised to bolster its forces at the borders, enhance sea control capabilities, and protect critical infrastructure. Maintaining NATO cohesion and political resilience is also a top priority.
Additional Insights:
- NATO and its allies are worried about Russia’s military buildup, which has been significantly reconstituted over the past years. Russia's industrial production has been expanded to cater to military needs, making it a potential threat to Europe and NATO in the near and medium term. (DDI, RBC Group and [Economist])
- Some experts predict a window of 2027-2035 for when Russia might conduct limited operations or a larger offensive against NATO's eastern flank. The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) and Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) warn that Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe within the next five years, specifically by 2030. (DDI, RBC Group and [Economist])
Sources:
- Bruno Kahl's statements (Table.Briefings)
- RBC Group
- NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (Reuters)
- Russian President Vladimir Putin (various news sources)
- In light of Russia's reconstituted military capabilities and industrial production catering to military needs, as reported by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) and Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), there are concerns about potential conflicts between Russia and NATO in the near and medium term, with some experts predicting a window of 2027-2035 for limited operations or a larger offensive against NATO's eastern flank.
- The possibility of war-and-conflicts between Russia and NATO, as seen in the current Ukraine conflict, has led to discussions about politics and general-news concerning Russia's westward expansion, with expert opinions suggesting that Moscow is plotting "a grand scenario for a major conflict with the West post-Ukraine war" and that Europe needs to strengthen its military capabilities and political resilience to counter these threats.
