Aggressive Increase in Defense Spending: NATO Agrees to Trump's Demand for 5% Across the Alliance
NATO sets a goal for collective defense spending to reach 5% of GDP for its member states.
In an unprecedented move during the NATO summit held in The Hague, the member states have agreed to a whopping increase in their defense spending. Future military spending by the allies will be at levels not seen since the Cold War, meeting US President Donald Trump's demand for an unprecedented rise in defense spending.
Russia's war against Ukraine and Trump's insistence have led NATO to commit to a five-percent defense spending target, which they had never considered before. The allies consented in the summit's final declaration to invest no less than five percent of their GDP in defense and security by 2035, a proposal which Trump had been pushing hard for. The previous target was a measly two percent.
In response to this significant commitment, the allies are now expecting Trump to formalize his promise that the US will honor its Article 5 commitment under his leadership. This means that an ally can rely on the support of the others in case of an attack, and an attack on one member is regarded as an attack on all.
The summit's declaration reads, "We, the Heads of State and Government of the North Atlantic Alliance, have gathered in The Hague to reaffirm our commitment to NATO, the strongest alliance in history, and to the transatlantic bond." We remain united and indomitable in our resolve to protect the billion citizens under our alliance.
Trump: A Massive Triumph
Trump, who had previously expressed doubts about the US' commitment to the core agreement of the NATO treaty, now celebrates the agreement on the defense spending target he proposed as a "massive" victory.
The agreement stipulates that each member state will need to spend at least 3.5 percent of their GDP in the future to meet "core defense requirements and achieve NATO's capability targets". Furthermore, expenditures on counter-terrorism and militarily usable infrastructure can also be taken into account to reach this objective. This could encompass investments in railway lines, tank-proof bridges, and expanded ports.
Merz: Spending Increase Not for Trump, for Security
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the summit as "historic" and emphasized that Germany is not increasing its defense spending for Trump, but because of the current security situation. "Russia is not only threatening Ukraine, Russia is threatening the entire peace, the entire political order of our continent," he said.
However, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg admitted that such an increase in NATO's target would not have been possible without Trump's pressure. Stoltenberg commended Trump for achieving something which "no American president has achieved in decades".
That Trump managed to attain this new target mainly by using the threat of withdrawing the US from NATO under his leadership, if the alliance partners did not cooperate, remained unaddressed by Stoltenberg. The Norwegian, like every other ally, is well aware that NATO's deterrence largely depends on the military capabilities of the US, and a US withdrawal could spell the end of the alliance.
Selenskyj, the Unseen Ally
The limits of the alliance's solidarity were evident in the discussion of the Ukrainian conflict. The majority of Europeans in NATO stand steadfastly behind Ukraine and seek to escalate the pressure on Russia. Trump, however, avoids taking a clear stance and believes that economic sanctions hurt his own economy.
The difference of opinions in the NATO alliance regarding the Ukrainian conflict was highlighted in this summit, where there was no separate working session on the Russian attack on Ukraine, unlike in previous years. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj, who was present as a guest, had only a supporting role at this event. In the summit declaration, solidarity with Ukraine is limited to the vague sentence: "The allies reaffirm their enduring individual commitments to support Ukraine, whose security adds to our security."
Selenskyj can count it as a minor victory that it was written down that NATO allies can count military support for his country toward their defense spending. This was a concern for Ukraine, given the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies.
Last year, NATO had promised Ukraine an aid pledge of €40 billion and stated its support for Ukraine on the "irreversible path" to NATO membership. The latter formulation, which carries significant weight for Ukraine, has now been omitted.
Concerns that summit participants, such as Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico, could still derail the summit were unfounded. Both agreed to the final declaration despite harboring reservations about the new defense spending target.
Problems Ahead for France
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made great efforts during the summit to prevent this issue from becoming a major problem for Trump. Speculating about a possible failure in the plan was something that no one in NATO wanted to entertain publicly. Instead, long-term planning for the next summit meetings is already underway. After the final declaration, the next summit is to be held in Turkey in 2022, and in Albania in 2027.
Source: ntv.de, uzh/dpa
- NATO
- Donald Trump
- Friedrich Merz
- Jens Stoltenberg
- NATO's two-percent target
- Attack on Ukraine
- Volodymyr Selenskyj
- The Hague
In-Depth Insights:
The NATO summit in The Hague resulted in a deal for member countries to increase defense spending to reach an unprecedented 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035. This bold decision aims to ensure the alliance has the necessary resources for its core defense mission and readiness to deter potential external attacks. The commitment includes allocating about 3.5% of GDP on "hard defense" such as weapons and troops, while the remaining 1.5% is earmarked for defense-related investments like cybersecurity and military mobility[1].
Factors Influencing the Decision:- Burden Sharing and Fairness: A key factor driving the agreement was the long-standing imbalance in defense spending within NATO. The United States has historically contributed a disproportionate share of collective defense costs. The new target seeks to make the alliance fairer by ensuring all members increase their contributions, reducing dependence on the U.S.[4]
- Pressure from the United States: The five-percent spending target was forcefully championed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who advocated for European allies to boost their defense budgets. Trump pointed out that the US has "carried their allies for years," and insisted they needed to increase their contributions accordingly[3].
- Security Environment: The agreement reflects the evolving security challenges facing NATO, including the need for heightened readiness and boosted defense capabilities as a response to external threats, notably from Russia. The meeting renewed support for Ukraine and emphasized the importance of maintaining a robust defense posture[4].
- Economic and Industrial Considerations: The plan also envisions increasing defense production capacity across the alliance to make sure armed forces are well-equipped. This growth is envisioned as advantageous not only for security but also for economic growth and job creation in member states[4].
Exceptions and Challenges:
- While the agreement aims for unity in the five percent target, some countries negotiated exemptions. Spain declared an opt-out from the five-percent target, arguing that committing to such a high level would be unreasonable and counterproductive for its economy[1][3].
- The U.S., while advocating for the increase among allies, expressed reservations about being held to the same five-percent threshold itself, indicating ongoing debates within the alliance about equitable contributions[1].
- Several other NATO members, including Belgium, Canada, France, and Italy, may face significant challenges in meeting this ambitious spending target. Progress will be assessed regularly, with the first review scheduled in four years[1].
To sum it up, the NATO summit in The Hague instituted a landmark defense spending objective of 5% of GDP by 2035, motivated by the need for fairer burden sharing, improved security readiness, and enhanced defense capabilities. While broadly accepted, the commitment includes negotiated exceptions and acknowledges the challenging road ahead for some members to achieve this target[1][4][5].
- The European Union has a responsibility to ensure that the EU's foreign policy is fully integrated into the EU's external policy, especially in the context of escalating war-and-conflicts, such as the ongoing war against Ukraine and the recent increase in defense spending by NATO member states as a response to political tensions and general news.
- Given the political landscape following the agreement among NATO allies to increase defense spending to levels not seen since the Cold War, it is crucial for the European Union to assess the potential implications of this increase on its own security policy and international relations, particularly with regards to conflicts in its vicinity.
