NATO faces air raid provocations instigated by Russia

Potential dangers may provoke a response from the military and political alliance.

, and ASMedia

2025 September 27 . 3:19 AM

2 min read

NATO faces potential provocation by Russia through airstrikes

NATO faces air raid provocations instigated by Russia

NATO has been strengthening its defenses in Eastern Europe in response to a series of provocative actions by Russia, notably the incursion of long-range Russian drones into Polish airspace and the violation of Estonian airspace by Russian MIG-31 combat aircraft.

On the night of September 9 to 10, 19 long-range Russian Gerbera drones entered Polish airspace, triggering a NATO intervention for the first time since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. Poland and its NATO allies used F-16 and F-35 fighter jets and American Patriot defense systems to shoot down the Russian drones. However, the cost of neutralizing these low-altitude drones, whose manufacturing costs are around a few thousand dollars, is significant. A single Patriot missile costs over $3 million.

The Atlantic Alliance quickly condemned the Russian MIG-31 incursion in Estonia as a new 'provocation' by the Kremlin. On Friday, three Russian MIG-31 combat aircraft violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. Russia has not commented on these incidents at the time of writing.

In response to these incidents, NATO established the 'Eastern Sentry' mission on September 12 to reinforce its eastern flank and deter Russian incursions. Several alliance countries, including France, Germany, the UK, Denmark, and Italy, are participating in this mission with combat aircraft, air defense systems, and surveillance aircraft.

Italy has been ensuring the security of the airspace of the Baltic countries for NATO since August. Four days later, Romania announced that a Geran drone had violated its airspace for nearly an hour before leaving. Three of these drones were shot down by fighter jets or air defense systems.

Justina Budginaite-Froehly argues that NATO should innovate to equip itself with weapons that are sufficiently inexpensive to shoot down these drones more effectively. Anessa Kimball, a professor at Université Laval in Canada, suggests that if Russia continues these acts of provocation, it may be trying to widen the conflict in Ukraine or destabilize it to prevent it from becoming 'frozen'.

Politically, the Kremlin uses these incursions to evaluate reactions within NATO, aiming to crack the alliance and exploit any divisions that arise. Russia is seeking to learn more about the real capabilities of NATO, gathering military information on the type of reaction triggered, capabilities deployed, and speed of decision-making.

These events are added to other Russian drone incursions in the Baltic countries in recent months. It remains to be seen how NATO will respond to these ongoing provocations and whether they will lead to a wider conflict in the region.