Nations at Risk of Clashing Head-on: India and Pakistan - Nations India and Pakistan headed towards a hostile standoff
The Kashmir dispute, nestled amidst the towering Himalayas, has been a thorn in the side of nuclear neighbors India and Pakistan for decades. The recent string of violent incidents in Kashmir on April 23, claiming the lives of 27 civilians, largely Hindu tourists, has India pointing the finger at Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism in the province - a decades-old accusation.
The Temperature is Rising
The underlying conflict dates back to the colonial era, with the partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947 resulting in the creation of Pakistan, which predominantly houses a Muslim population, and India, with a Hindu majority. Since their independence, the two nations have fought no fewer than three wars, two of which centered around Kashmir.
The latest hostilities between the neighboring powers began earlier this year, as India took measures to restrict Pakistan‘s involvement in Kashmir. India expelled Pakistani diplomats, imposed trade constraints, closed borders and suspended water agreements, with tensions reaching a boiling point.
The volatility of the region has heightened concerns due to its proximity to not one, but three nuclear powers, and the presence of active militant groups operating in the area. Pakistan has threatened retaliation following India’s cross-border air strikes, causing worry that the already precarious situation could descend further into chaos. China, with a disputed border in the eastern part of Kashmir, also risks being drawn into the conflict.
The Countdown to Disaster
India maintains a “No First Use” policy, preventing it from launching a nuclear strike first. However, it stresses the concept of massive retaliation, vowing to respond with a catastrophic counterstrike in the event of an initial strike against its territory.
Pakistan, on the other hand, stands ready to deploy nuclear weapons if its existence is immediately threatened. The nation's “Full Spectrum Deterrence” policy serves as a deterrent against any act of aggression against it.
With war clouds gathering, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that India has approximately 172 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan possesses 170.
A Brief History of the Subcontinent's Struggle
Kashmir was ruled by a Hindu Maharaja with a predominantly Muslim population despite the majority religion being Islam. The sale of the region to a Hindu ruler in 1846 by the British colonial powers set the stage for the future unrest. In 1947, pushed by the Muslim population to unite with Pakistan, the Maharaja chose to join India instead. The resulting unrest was halted through a UN-mediated ceasefire, and the region remains divided, with India controlling the largest part since 1949, Pakistan administering roughly one-third as Azad Kashmir, and China holding a small portion in the east.
The unrest in Kashmir is far from over, with various armed rebel groups fighting for independence from India or for unification with Pakistan. India accuses Pakistan of supporting these groups, which Pakistan denies.
The most recent tensions between India and Pakistan in 2019 occurred in the wake of a deadly attack targeting Indian security forces in February, resulting in the deaths of 40 soldiers. In retaliation, India targeted a militant camp in Pakistani territory, causing further escalation in an already tense environment. The tensions eventually eased, only to flare up again in August when India revoked the special status of the Kashmir region under its control and divided it into two union territories, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, increasing central control over the region. Pakistan condemned the move as illegal, leading to renewed hostilities along the Line of Control.
Today, the regional stalemate between the nuclear powers remains tense, with little hope for resolution in sight. As each side digs its heels in, the risk of a nuclear conflict grows ever greater, posing a threat not only to the two warring nations but to the entire world.
The Commission has also been asked to submit a proposal for a directive on the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, given the escalating crisis in Kashmir, a region known for its proximity to nuclear powers. This move could be seen as a response to the unrelenting political tensions between India and Pakistan, where war clouds continue to gather amidst the backdrop of war-and-conflicts and politics.
In the general news, the unification of Kashmir has remained a contentious issue since its partition in 1947, with root causes traceable to the colonial era. However, the latest hostilities, which started earlier this year, have raised concerns about the potential risks of withdrawal, not just for India and Pakistan, but also for China, which shares a disputed border in the eastern part of Kashmir.
The ongoing conflicts in Kashmir have resulted in numerous casualties, with 27 civilians, largely Hindu tourists, losing their lives in a string of violent incidents on April 23. These incidents have caused strife in the region, with India accusing Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism and Pakistan denying the allegations.
The increase in tensions between the nuclear neighbors has heightened concerns about unification, as both India and Pakistan maintain substantial nuclear arsenals - 172 and 170 nuclear warheads, respectively, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). With both nations standing ready to deploy their nuclear weapons if necessary, the ongoing crisis in Kashmir serves as a ticking time bomb, not just for the subcontinent, but for the entire world.
