Nationalist Nawrocki assumes presidency in Poland, marking a win over Tusk
Karol Nawrocki, a conservative and nationalist figure, was sworn in as Poland's president on Wednesday, marking a significant change in the country's political landscape. Backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, Nawrocki's presidency is expected to steer Poland towards a more nationalist, conservative, and U.S.-aligned foreign policy stance, potentially complicating Poland's relations with the EU while strengthening ties with the U.S. and NATO.
Poland's Relations with Ukraine
Rising nationalist and anti-immigration sentiments under Nawrocki's presidency might cool public enthusiasm for supporting Ukrainian refugees already in Poland, numbering around one million. Although no explicit new policy changes were outlined, this shift in public opinion suggests a more cautious or restrictive approach towards Ukraine-related migration and aid, potentially complicating bilateral relations.
Relations with the European Union
Nawrocki's presidency is expected to deepen Poland's Brussels-wary stance. While EU leaders like Ursula von der Leyen initially congratulated him, his nationalist policies and the political dynamics weakening pro-EU Prime Minister Tusk could stall Poland's legislative alignment with Brussels, especially concerning rule of law reforms that were already a source of conflict. Public support for EU membership has also declined in Poland amidst rising nationalist currents.
NATO and the United States
On the NATO front, Nawrocki's presidency is likely to maintain or even strengthen Poland's active role. His pro-NATO stance aligns with Poland’s strategic interest in countering Russian aggression and deepening military cooperation with the United States. This approach may help convince U.S. leadership, including Trump allies, of the threat posed by Russia and bolster Poland’s defense posture.
Nawrocki's spokesman, Rafal Leskiewicz, stated that the United States is a priority partner.
The Road Ahead
There is uncertainty about how Nawrocki's presidency will pan out, according to political observers. Andrzej Rychard, a sociologist from the Polish Academy of Science, expressed doubt about Nawrocki fully implementing the policies of Law and Justice. Nawrocki can use his veto powers to stymie a government agenda that includes rolling back judicial reforms implemented by PiS.
Nawrocki's election victory dealt a blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk's hopes of cementing Poland's pro-European Union course. Supporters of the liberal candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, filed thousands of protests to the Supreme Court over irregularities at some polling stations, but the irregularities were not enough to materially alter the result. PiS accuse their liberal opponents of trying to subvert the will of the people, and their supporters plan to march in the capital on inauguration day.
Michal Wojcik, a PiS lawmaker, invited supporters to attend the swearing-in of the president in Warsaw.
As president, Nawrocki would be required to sign off on Poland's ratification of a new member joining NATO. Nawrocki has expressed that he does not currently see a place for Ukraine in NATO or the EU.
In summary, Karol Nawrocki’s presidency signals a rightward, nationalist trajectory that will likely enhance Poland’s U.S. and NATO relations, possibly reduce warmth towards Ukraine-related migration policies, and inject more tension into Poland’s relations with the EU due to skepticism about Brussels and clashes with the centrist government.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-election-far-right-candidate-karol-nawrocki-wins-presidential-runoff-2022-11-14/ [2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62917769 [3] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/karol-nawrocki-far-right-candidate-wins-polish-presidential-runoff [4] https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-nationalist-candidate-karol-nawrocki-wins-presidential-election-donald-tusk-eu-migration/ [5] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-president-elect-nawrocki-says-he-doesnt-see-place-ukraine-nato-or-eu-2022-11-14/
- The new Polish president, Karol Nawrocki, with his nationalist and conservative policies, might lead to a more cautious or restrictive approach towards Ukrainian refugees in Poland, potentially complicating Poland's relations with Ukraine.
- Nawrocki's presidency is likely to deepen Poland's skepticism about the European Union, potentially stalling Poland's legislative alignment with Brussels and increasing tension with the centrist government, especially concerning rule of law reforms.
