Chasing Glory: Why Nagelsmann is All-In for a World Cup Victory against Portugal
Nagelsmann is staking his strategy on Portugal due to specific reasons.
Hold onto your jerseys! Germany is on a winning streak, having taken two games and counting. But the real prize? The Nations League title—and a coveted spot in pot 1 for the 2026 World Cup.
But, dread looms. A Semifinal loss against Portugal this Wednesday (21:00 CEST/ZDF, DAZN, and ntv.de live ticker) could jeopardize Germany's spot in pot 1, risking a tough matchup with Spain, Argentina, France, or England. Alternatively, group A with co-host Mexico could pose a different kind of challenge, complete with sweltering temperatures and venues.
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Remember March's nail-biter against Italy in Dortmund? Nagelsmann warned then that the math could get tricky. The World Cup will feature the hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico, along with the top nine teams in the world rankings. To secure pot 1 for the World Cup draw in December, Germany (currently at 1716.98 points) will need to beat Portugal and out rank Italy (currently at 1718.31 points). A win in regular time would boost Germany's points to 1730.27. Italy can only gain 7.49 points, bringing their total to 1725.80.
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Even a loss in the potential final against Spain or France could cost Germany points, allowing Italy to retake the lead with a win against Moldova the following day. The ranking at the end of the World Cup qualifiers matters most for the draw.
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The Netherlands (1752.44), Portugal (1750.08), and Belgium (1735.75) are within reach for sixth to eighth place. Meanwhile, Croatia (1698.66) and Morocco (1694.24) are lurking close behind. Regardless of the calculations, European nations still have to qualify for the World Cup. Germany's second-half qualifiers include Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg.
Source: ntv.de, ara/dpa
Julian Nagelsmann | National Team | Football World Cup 2026 | Nations League
[1] Enrichment: The UEFA Nations League results influenced the seeding for the World Cup qualifying draw. While the Nations League results do not directly affect the seeding within the World Cup qualifying groups themselves, teams were seeded based on their UEFA Nations League performance, determining the composition of the groups [3].
[2] Enrichment: The main direct impact of the UEFA Nations League on the World Cup qualification is through the playoff paths. The four best-ranked UEFA Nations League group winners that do not finish in the top two of their World Cup qualifying group can participate in the playoffs [2][3]. If Germany does not finish first or second in its qualifying group, its Nations League performance could potentially secure a spot in the playoffs, depending on its overall ranking [2].
[3] Enrichment: The seeding for the World Cup qualifying groups themselves was not directly affected by the UEFA Nations League results [3]. The World Cup groups were determined through a draw based on the teams' FIFA rankings, know as the FIFA World Ranking, and geographical considerations, with the top 7 teams getting second matches kept in the pot until the first 7 teams of the seeding have been drawn [1].
- I'm not going to be able to do this football match against Portugal in the Nations League, given the potential implications for Germany's position in the European leagues and their World Cup aspirations.
- If Germany loses to Portugal, not only could they miss out on a coveted spot in pot 1 for the 2026 World Cup, but they might also see Italy leapfrog them in the rankings, potentially threatening their qualification chances.
