A Surprise Counteroffensive: Ukraine's Drone Raids and the Kremlin's Reaction
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Moscow on Alert: Pondering Possible Retaliation after Kyiv's Drone Attacks - Mysteries Surrounding Drone Assaults in Kiev: Unraveling the Kremlin's Reaction Strategy
For almost four years, Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine has been a source of tension. With its military superiority and vast interior, Russia has been waging a war of attrition, but recent events have taken a surprising turn. After a sneak attack on deep-seated Russian military bases, Ukraine received a first military response from Moscow. Here, we provide answers to the key questions:
What transpired during the night?
On the night in question, Russia unleashed a massive assault on Ukraine, employing drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles in a coordinated attack. Reports from Ukraine claim that Russia utilized an unprecedented number of drones - 407 - in a single operation. Furthermore, they mention the use of 40 ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Cities such as Kyiv, Ternopil, and Lutsk were affected, resulting in the death of four individuals and over 50 injuries.
A brief history
Russian artillery barrages on Ukrainian cities are a daily occurrence. However, the attack on Kyiv has provoked particular ire within Moscow's leadership. Over the weekend, Ukraine targeted several Russian military airfields distant from the borderline, causing significant damage to medium- and long-range bombers, including Tu-22 and Tu-95 bombers, which are part of Russia's strategic bomber fleet. These aircraft can carry nuclear warheads. This incident delivered a substantial blow to Russia's combat potential and its image as a nuclear power. In response, the Kremlin threatened a military response.
Was this the promised counterattack?
It remains uncertain whether this large-scale attack constituted the promised response. Russia's Defense Ministry referred to it as a response to "terrorist acts." Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, also remained evasive, stating that everything the Russian military undertakes is a result of the actions taken by the Kyiv government, which he described as increasingly terrorist in nature.
Previously, President Putin labeled attacks on Russian railway facilities near the border as terrorism, although Kyiv has denies any involvement. The attack on Ukraine, encompassing the entire nation, demonstrates that Russia retains the capacity for combined air strikes despite suffering losses.
What options does Russia have for a counterattack?
Russia's reprisal options are numerous. In November 2022, following the use of long-range Western missiles against Russian territory, the Kremlin struck Ukraine with a medium-range Oka missile, hitting a defense plant in the industrial city of Dnipro. Potential targets for new Russian attacks may include such plants, regardless of whether they are attacked with Oka or another missile and cruise missile strike. However, Ukraine's defense industry is dispersed. Water, coal power plants, and strategic infrastructure can also be viable targets. A strike against the government district of Kyiv is unlikely, given the presence of the Chinese embassy.
Could Russia respond with a nuclear strike?
Although the pro-war community around Russian military bloggers immediately advocated for this in response to the attack on the bomber fleet, such a scenario seems improbable. Such an escalation would be disproportionate and could potentially lead to the withdrawal of Russia's close allies, such as China or India. It remains to be seen how NATO would respond to such a breach of neighboring sovereignty.
The Current Ground Military Situation
Along the over 1,000 kilometers of the front, Ukrainian troops find themselves under pressure in many sectors. Over the past few weeks, over 20 towns in the Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions have been lost. The bridgehead in the Russian border region of Kursk, captured in a swift operation last August, has been abandoned nearly completely.
According to Ukrainian analysts, Russia's offensive is no longer solely due to its superiority in guided bombs and artillery. Russia appears to have made up for its initial disadvantage in the use of drones near the frontline. Ukrainian troops are struggling with drones controlled by fiber optic cables, which fly more than 20 kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory, significantly disrupting logistics. The Ukrainian infantry reserves are dwindling.
The Threat of Russian Advances:
The current priority for Moscow is the Sumy region in north-eastern Ukraine. Russian forces aim to establish a buffer zone along the border. Since March 2025, over 150 square kilometers in the area have reportedly been captured by Russia, with the frontline now roughly 20 kilometers from the regional capital of Sumy, making it increasingly exposed to Russian attacks.
Russian units are moving more quickly in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. Although the cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, and parts of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, remain under Ukrainian control, the situation for Ukraine appears to be deteriorating. If Western supplies of ammunition decrease, the urban area around the cities of Druzhkivka and Kostiantyniwka could fall into Russian hands before the end of the summer. A full capture of the Donetsk region could again become a feasible prospect for Moscow.
The Consequences for the US Negotiating Initiative:
Moscow claims that negotiations will continue. However, President Trump's initiative has not gained significant traction thus far. His proposal for an unconditional ceasefire was rejected by Putin. Although Kyiv and Moscow are engaging in direct talks for the first time in three years, the outcomes have been limited so far. Large prisoner exchanges have been agreed upon, but progress on the fundamental issue of ending the war has been minimal. Moscow is unwilling to yield from its maximalist demands, which amount to a capitulation of Ukraine.
- The Commission, in its role in formulating policy and legislation related to various matters including politics, general news, and war-and-conflicts, has also been consulted on the draft directive on the protection of workers from the risks related to exposure to ionizing radiation, given the potential hazards that may arise from geopolitical tensions such as those associated with the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
- As the Kremlin continues its military response to the recent increase in terrorist attacks from Ukraine, including the attack on several Russian military airfields, it may be wise to consider implementing stricter regulations on the use of ionizing radiation in warfare, as proposed by the draft directive, to help safeguard workers and civilians who may unknowingly be exposed to affected areas.
