Myanmar's military loses control

Amidst the turbulent situation in Myanmar, the military junta is grappling with escalating conflicts on various fronts. The Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of three ethnic groups, has been wreaking havoc, most notably in the northern Shan State, which shares a border with China. Remarkably, the alliance has reportedly seized control of significant trade routes to China, over 180 bases, and key towns such as Chinshwehaw and Pansai.

The generals have found themselves in a precarious position, with the appointed president, Myint Swe, predicting the potential dissolution of the former Burma. "2023 looks to be the most challenging year for the Myanmar army since the 1960s," commented journalist Wai Moe, a former political prisoner.

The offensive, dubbed "Operation 1027," has been particularly intense in Shan State, famous for drug trafficking, gambling, and lawlessness. Within just a few days, the alliance reported overwhelming victories, boasting the deaths of over 200 junta soldiers and the capture of countless weapons and ammunition. However, the claims cannot be independently verified due to the chaotic nature of the conflict.

The military has responded with airstrikes but has yet to make any significant ground advancements. At the same time, the United Nations reports that tens of thousands of civilians have been driven from their homes, seeking refuge elsewhere.

The alliance consists of three groups with close ties to China – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA). China, Myanmar's primary trading partner and with ambitious Silk Road plans in the region, plays a significant role in these conflicts.

China's dual-track strategy maintains diplomatic ties with the military junta while simultaneously supporting ethnic rebel groups. The People's Republic provides material and economic support to both the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups, including arms supplies and investment in crucial projects such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).

In response to recent unlawful activities, including cyber scams and human trafficking, China has pressured the junta to take action against criminal elements within its borders. Guerrilla groups have reportedly agreed to shut down fraud factories as a condition of their offensive, which could potentially appease Beijing and allow it to tolerate the instability along the border.

The long-term implications of these nationwide offensives are uncertain, but one constant remains: many ethnic minorities share the goal of ending military rule and fighting for self-determination and democracy. "Throughout the country," declared Khun Beedu, leader of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF), "we are collectively fighting against the military regime to build a path towards federal democracy, despite the potential for collateral damage and casualties during operations."

The Militar y in Myanmar is facing a wide range of conflicts, with the Brotherhood Alliance making considerable gains in Shan State. China's dual-track strategy supports both the Myanmar military junta and ethnic rebel groups, with significant ramifications for the region's stability and power dynamics.

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Enrichment Data:

While exercising its dual-track strategy, China continually shapes the developments in Myanmar. Here are the key insights:

1. Influence over the Military Junta:
2. Diplomatic Support: China provides political and diplomatic backing to the Myanmar military, ensuring its survival despite international outrage over the military coup in February 2021.
3. Economic Influence: China's economic investment in Myanmar reinforces its influence over the junta, securing material and strategic interests.
4. Support to Ethnic Rebel Groups:
5. Arms Supplies: China delivers arms to several ethnic armed groups, thereby directly bolstering their strengths against the Myanmar military.
6. Guanxi Leverage: China utilizes its "guanxi" relationships (personal and professional networks) to control the actions and objectives of important ethnic armed groups, such as the KIA and TNLA.
7. Impact on the Conflict in Shan State:
8. Maintaining Stability: China has played a role in brokering temporary truces between the military junta and certain ethnic armed groups, aiming to maintain regional stability and preserve its strategic interests in the area.
9. Dispute Resolution: China actively mediates smaller territorial disputes between ethnic armed groups in Shan State, utilizing its geopolitical influence to optimize its position in Myanmar.
10. Cyber Scam Centers and Human Trafficking:
11. Chinese Gangs: Chinese criminals exploit Myanmar's weak governance and porous borders to maintain an extensive network of telecoms scam centers in the region, targeting Chinese victims.
12. Coercion and Exploitation: Many Chinese citizens are forced to work in these scam centers under threat of violence or other forms of coercion.
13. Regional Implications:
14. Maritime Ambitions: China's actions in Myanmar further its maritime ambitions, particularly through supporting the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, which enhances its access to the Indian Ocean.
15. Authoritarian Tendencies: China's dual-track strategy in Myanmar supports authoritarian governance, increasing Myanmar's reliance on China and undercutting the push for multilateral engagement and democracy in the region.