Moscow Stands Firm on Abandoning Land-Based Nuclear Missile Disavowal
In a move that signifies a significant shift in global strategic dynamics, Russia's official abandonment of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2025 has heightened tensions and increased the risk of nuclear escalation. The U.S. and NATO now face a direct strategic threat as Russian intermediate-range missile deployments put Eastern and Central European capitals within striking distance.
The INF Treaty, signed in 1987 by then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan, aimed to eliminate all land-based ballistic missiles and cruise missiles with shorter (500 to 1000 kilometers) and intermediate (1000 to 5500 kilometers) ranges. However, the treaty has not been in effect since the U.S. withdrawal in 2019, and Russia's decision to abandon it further weakens the post-Cold War arms control regime.
The U.S., in response to the Russian threat, plans to deploy weapons in Germany. These weapons include Tomahawk cruise missiles, which can technically be equipped with nuclear warheads, as well as new hypersonic weapons and SM-6 air defense missiles. The deployment serves as a deterrent against potential Russian aggression.
Russia has responded by deploying nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad exclave, putting cities like Warsaw and Berlin within potential reach. The German military has stated that this move presents a threat. The deployment of U.S. weapons in Germany is seen as a response to the deployment of Russian Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad exclave.
The collapse of the INF Treaty has several key implications. It increases the risk of rapid or accidental nuclear escalation due to the deployment of systems like the 9M729 Iskander-M, RS-26 Rubezh, and new Oreshnik missiles. These missiles’ short flight times and ambiguous payloads reduce decision times in crises.
Capitals such as Warsaw, Berlin, Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn are now potentially targetable by Russian intermediate-range missiles, heightening tensions and forcing NATO to reconsider defense strategies across eastern Europe. Frontline states like Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic countries face increased vulnerability, especially given Russia’s demonstrated willingness to operationalize new missile technology in active warzones.
Russia justifies its action largely as a response to U.S. deployments and cooperation with NATO allies, including the planned U.S.-Germany “episodic deployments” of longer-range ground missiles in 2026. This tit-for-tat dynamic complicates global strategic stability and arms control.
To manage these challenges, the U.S. and NATO are considering several responses. These include strengthening missile defense systems, recalibrating NATO defense posture, engaging in diplomatic and arms control efforts, and employing military and political signaling through exercises and partnerships with allies.
However, these responses risk further escalation, as suggested by the Kremlin’s warnings. Maintaining strategic arms control treaties like New START remains important to constrain nuclear risks, though Moscow’s current stance and recent withdrawals complicate this path.
In sum, Russia’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty marks a shift back toward Cold War-era dynamics, escalating nuclear risks, and uncertainty in global strategic stability. The U.S. and NATO must balance enhanced deterrence, missile defense development, and arms control diplomacy to manage these challenges.
[1] Arms Control Association. (2025). INF Treaty Crisis: Origins, Implications, and Options. [online] Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025_08/inf-treaty-crisis-origins-implications-and-options
[2] Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2025). The INF Treaty's Collapse: Implications for Europe and Beyond. [online] Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/2025/08/18/inf-treaty-s-collapse-implications-for-europe-and-beyond-pub-83546
[3] Congressional Research Service. (2025). U.S. Missile Defense: Background, Issues, and Options for Congress. [online] Available at: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46104
[4] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2025). The INF Treaty and the New Arms Race: Implications for Europe and the World. [online] Available at: https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/inf-treaty-and-new-arms-race-implications-europe-and-world
[5] Federation of American Scientists. (2025). The INF Treaty: Background, Issues, and Options. [online] Available at: https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/documents/inf-treaty/
- The recent withdrawal of Russia from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has led to a significant shift in global politics, policy-and-legislation, and general news, as it increases the risk of nuclear escalation and requires the U.S. and NATO to recalibrate defense strategies.
- The collapse of the INF Treaty has significant implications for war-and-conflicts, as capitals such as Warsaw, Berlin, Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn are now potentially targetable by Russian intermediate-range missiles, necessitating a reconsideration of NATO defense strategies across Eastern Europe.
