Moscow Announces Persistence in Maintaining Land-Based Nuclear Arsenal

Moscow Announces Persistence in Maintaining Land-Based Nuclear Arsenal

Russia's official withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on August 4, 2025, and the lifting of its self-imposed moratorium on deploying ground-based intermediate-range missiles have heightened security challenges for the U.S. and European nations.

The breakup of arms control agreements further erodes the post-Cold War arms control framework, undermining trust and threatening the viability of remaining treaties like New START, which is due to expire in 2026.

The deployment of Russian intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles, such as the modernized 9M729 Iskander-M, RS-26 Rubezh, and the newly deployed Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, increases the risk of rapid nuclear escalation or accidental war due to shorter missile flight times and ambiguity about warhead types. Capitals in Eastern and Central Europe—including Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn, and Berlin—are now within missile range, threatening NATO cohesion and necessitating reassessment of defense postures across the alliance.

NATO frontline states and Ukraine face increased vulnerability amid an ongoing conflict where Russia has operationally deployed new missile systems, signaling a willingness to escalate militarily. The regional destabilization has potential implications beyond Europe, with Russia justifying its actions by accusing the U.S. and NATO of deploying INF-range weapons in Europe and Asia-Pacific, potentially escalating missile deployments in contested regions like Kaliningrad, Crimea, and the Far East.

In response, the U.S. has ramped up investment in advanced missile defense systems, such as the $175 billion “Golden Dome” program announced in May 2025, aiming to neutralize Russian strategic nuclear threats. The U.S. is also planning to deploy SM-6 air defense missiles in Germany, in addition to the Tomahawk cruise missiles, some of which can technically be equipped with nuclear warheads.

NATO is expected to strengthen deterrence and defense measures in Eastern and Central Europe, adapting to the direct missile threat by bolstering military presence and air/missile defense capabilities. This includes the deployment of U.S.-produced, ground-based, short- and intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe, such as the Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have a longer range than currently deployed land-based systems.

The U.S. and European allies continue to emphasize arms control dialogue wherever possible but face challenges due to Russia's declared unwillingness to return to treaty constraints, complicating prospects for new agreements. Some U.S. political actors advocate for intensified defense spending and innovative defensive technologies, reflecting a broader strategic focus on countering Russia’s new “nuclear reality” and its deployment of intermediate-range missiles.

Western governments remain on heightened alert for risks of rapid escalation or miscalculation, given the shorter warning times that intermediate-range missiles enable. This includes improving early warning and response coordination within NATO.

In sum, Russia’s INF Treaty abandonment has deepened security dilemmas in Europe and beyond, prompting the U.S. and European nations to accelerate missile defense efforts, recalibrate NATO’s deterrence posture, and contend with increased strategic instability and risks of escalation.

1. The policy-and-legislation response to Russia's withdrawal from the INF Treaty and the deployment of its intermediate-range missiles involves strengthening NATO deterrence and defense measures, including the deployment of advanced missile defense systems like the "Golden Dome" program, SM-6 air defense missiles in Germany, and potentially U.S.-produced, ground-based, short- and intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe.
2. As a result of the increasing risk from intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles in Europe, there is a heightened focus on general-news reporting about war-and-conflicts, particularly as the shorter missile flight times and ambiguity about warhead types contribute to the potential for rapid nuclear escalation or accidental war.
3. In the realm of crime-and-justice, the proliferation of intermediate-range missiles in contested regions such as Kaliningrad, Crimea, and the Far East may lead to complex issues of international law and potential consequences for those implicated in the production, deployment, or use of these weapons in violation of existing treaties, including the INF Treaty.

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