Monsoon rains set to become more severe in Pakistan, provoking a high-level warning from authorities
Heavy Monsoon Rains Forecast for Punjab, Pakistan
Pakistan's Punjab province is bracing for intense monsoon rains in the coming days, with authorities urging vigilance and precautionary measures to avoid potential disasters.
Forecast and Areas at Risk
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, heavy monsoon rains are expected to hit Murree, Galiyat, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, and other surrounding areas from August 13-17. These rains are anticipated to spread to most plains districts from August 18-21.
Areas at risk include not only the hilly districts but also the plains districts mentioned above. Other areas at risk include Gujrat, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Lahore, Sheikhupura, Sialkot, Narowal, Kasur, Faisalabad, and Sahiwal.
Advisories and Potential Impacts
The Punjab government has extended summer school vacations until August 31 to mitigate risks to students amid ongoing extreme weather. Authorities have also advised all concerned to remain alert and take precautionary measures to avoid untoward situations during heavy rainfall episodes.
The potential impacts of these heavy rains could include floods, destruction of homes, loss of crops and livestock, and human casualties. Disruption of normal life in Punjab is also a significant concern due to the stronger, unpredictable monsoons linked to climate change.
Background
Pakistan's June-September monsoon brings around 70 percent of annual rainfall, but climate change is making seasonal patterns more erratic and intense. Since late June, monsoon-related incidents in Punjab have resulted in 164 deaths, 582 injuries, damage to 216 homes, and the loss of 121 livestock, according to PDMA records.
In 2022, record monsoon rains and glacial floods inundated a third of the country, causing at least 1,700 deaths and damage estimated at more than $30 billion.
Current Situation
As of August 13, flood levels in the Indus River at Kalabagh, Tarbela, and Chashma, and in the Chenab at Khanki were low, with normal flows in the Jhelum, Ravi, and Sutlej. Mangla Dam was at 65 percent capacity, Tarbela at 96 percent, and Indian reservoirs were around 70 percent full.
Additional Concerns
Heavy winds could damage weak structures, rooftops, and power infrastructure. Landslides are also a concern, particularly in Murree and Galiyat.
Scientists suggest that warmer air holds more moisture, increasing the risk of extreme downpours, while glacial melt and poor drainage heighten flood vulnerability.
Future Outlook
The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) predicts more rain-wind/thundershowers in the country in the coming days and expects the monsoon activity to intensify during the upcoming week. The Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasts moist currents from the Bay of Bengal to strengthen from August 17, with a westerly wave influencing upper parts of the country.
The PDMA warns of urban flooding in low-lying areas of Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore, and Sialkot and possible flash floods in rivers and hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan from August 18 to 21.
The government of Pakistan has reported over 300 deaths and 1,600 damaged houses due to floods, heavy rain, and weather-related incidents since June 26. The DG PDMA Punjab has instructed all commissioners and deputy commissioners to remain alert and keep emergency control rooms staffed round the clock. The agency advises the public to follow safety instructions, keep children away from rivers and canals, and avoid crossing flowing water during floods.
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