Moldova's Prime Minister claims Russia intends to station approximately 10,000 military personnel in the region of Pridnestrovie.
Tensions in the Transnistria region, located along Moldova's eastern border with Ukraine, are running high with the potential for a significant flare-up.
The Current Chaos
Political pressures are mounting, particularly since Russia suspended free gas deliveries to Transnistria via Ukraine starting January 1, 2025. The abrupt halt has caused severe energy shortages, resulting in the main power plant's inoperability, plummeting industrial output, and essential service disruptions. The economic crisis in Transnistria is dire, with a 50% decrease in industrial output, a third decline in exports, and over 450,000 residents facing daily blackouts of up to four hours [3][5].
Transnistria's government is unable to cover essential expenses like salaries [3][5]. To make matters worse, the region rejected a €60 million EU energy aid package in February 2024, worsening the humanitarian crisis [4].
Military and Geopolitical Challenges
Russia maintains approximately 1,500 troops in Transnistria, along with a vast Soviet-era weapons depot and military base [3][2]. There have been indications that Russia may station up to 10,000 additional troops, although this would require creating a land corridor through Ukraine, posing logistical complexities [2].
Authorities in Tiraspol have called for Russian "protection," using language reminiscent of Russia-backed separatists in Ukraine before the 2022 invasion [2]. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has cautioned that Moldova could become "the next Ukraine," and has accused Moldovan President Maia Sandu of pushing for NATO membership [2]. Russia vows to prevent Russian citizens in Transnistria from becoming victims of another Western adventure [2].
Elections and Manipulation
Moldova is set to hold parliamentary elections in September 2025. Moldovan President Sandu has expressed concerns that Russia may create a larger crisis in Transnistria to destabilize Moldova ahead of the elections, potentially employing tactics like voter bribery, political manipulation, and blackmail, including offers of assistance in exchange for votes [4].
Transnistria declared a 30-day state of emergency in June 2025 due to natural gas supply reductions, further aggravating tensions and potentially aiding election interference [4].
A Shaky Peace
Moscow's strategic calculations reportedly include plans for opening a "second front" via Transnistria at the early stages of the Ukraine war, although these plans are not definitively current [2]. The Moldovan government continues to demand the withdrawal of Russian forces, a stance backed by a 2018 UN resolution that Moscow has ignored [2]. The lack of trust, coupled with economic and humanitarian pressures, creates a volatile environment where any external pressure—military, energy, or electoral—could amplify the situation.
Overall, the Transnistria region is caught in a maelstrom of energy crises, political instability, and military tensions, with violence a real possibility.
The increase in political pressure has been exacerbated by the cessation of free gas deliveries to Transnistria, leading to potential events of significant turmoil. The rejection of the EU energy aid package and the declaring of a state of emergency have added to the general-news headlines, warning of possible war-and-conflicts in the region.
