Moldova's Elections Showcase Sustained Stability, Yet Politically Delicate Context
Moldova is gearing up for its parliamentary election on September 28, amidst regional insecurity and shifting geopolitical alignments. The electorate appears to be polarizing, with little room for centrist alternatives, according to emerging patterns.
Maia Sandu's pro-European party leads the election polls, but falls short of an absolute majority. In the latest polling, PAS secured 25.8% of the full electorate, followed by the Patriotic Electoral Bloc with 19.7%, Alternativa Bloc with 8.1%, and Our Party with 6.6%. However, the unpredictability of Renato Usatîi, leader of Our Party, adds another layer of uncertainty to the election day outcomes.
The Moldovan authorities are actively mobilizing the diaspora vote, particularly in Western countries, to help PAS secure a parliamentary majority. This move comes as the authorities have framed all opposition forces as pro-Russian, reinforcing the geopolitical stakes of the election.
President Sandu has warned of large-scale Russian interference in the elections, alleging a plan to secure a pro-Russian majority and undermine Moldova's sovereignty. Investigative reporting by ZdG revealed paid protests, illicit payments, and a coordinated disinformation campaign as part of Russia's hybrid operations against Moldova. Moscow retains leverage over Renato Usatîi through his business interests in Russia.
The European Union has provided substantial political and financial support to the Moldovan government, committing around 300 million euros to Chisinau in 2025. EU financial support is crucial for Moldova to pay bills and stabilize households, particularly through energy subsidies.
However, NGO Promo-LEX has criticized the measure as insufficient, noting that broader participation from Transnistria is key to long-term reintegration. The Central Electoral Commission has approved 301 polling stations abroad, mostly in EU countries and the United States, while only two will open in Russia, sparking opposition criticism. Chisinau is introducing digital scanning at foreign polling stations to accelerate voting and reduce waiting times.
Corruption is identified as Moldova's top problem, but voters expect parliament to focus on bread-and-butter issues first. Despite this, European concern over Moldova's elections is rising, driven both by uncertainty over the results and by questions about post-election stability.
The Weimar Triangle leaders visited Moldova on Independence Day, boosting President Maia Sandu's standing. Prime Minister Dorin Recean has made security his foremost priority. However, the single largest 'party' remains the undecided voters, who make up roughly 40% of the electorate.
In the 2022 Moldovan parliamentary election, the main parties that likely ran included Maia Sandu's pro-European party and several opposition parties, most of which were more or less pro-Russian. The upcoming election promises to be a significant test of Moldova's political landscape and its geopolitical alignment.
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