MLB Wagering Choices Highlighted for Saturday May 3rd
On this Saturday, the MLB weekend starts strong with a stacked 15-game schedule. Let's dive into the games our VSiN MLB Betting Splits**, continuous updates minute by minute, brought directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports, have the smart money favoring.
Top MLB Betting Sources:- Current MLB Games- Parlay Calculator- Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines- MLB Odds- MLB Betting Splits
2:15 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-150, 8.5) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Mets (22-11) claimed the opening game of this series last night, winning 9-3 as -120 road underdogs. In tonight's rematch, the Mets put Tylor Megill (3-2, 1.74 ERA) on the mound, while the Cardinals (14-19) counter with Erick Fedde (1-3, 4.68 ERA).
The line opened with the Mets as -140 road favorites, but with the Mets' recent success sharp bettors have moved the line to -150. Some shops are even indicating odds of -155. At DraftKings, the Mets have received an impressive 86% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Mets are seeing 90% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are reporting heavy "low bets, higher dollars" support for another Mets road win.
In support of a Mets victory, favorites with line movement have won 65% of the time this season with a 7% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season have also fared well, winning 65% of the time with a 5% ROI. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 69% successful, boasting a 11% ROI. Additionally, the Mets have the advantage in the bullpen, with a team ERA of 3.18 (8th best) compared to the Cardinals' 4.73 (5th worst).
Fun Fact: St. Louis went 0-5 in Fedde's five April starts, with a 5.40 ERA in those games.
4:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (-115, 9.5)
Yesterday the Red Sox (18-16) triumphantly won the series opener 6-1, taking charge as -120 home favorites. Tonight's matchup pits Bailey Ober (3-1, 4.13 ERA) of the Twins (13-20) against Hunter Dobbins (2-0, 2.45 ERA) of the Red Sox.
The line opened with the Red Sox listed as a slight -110 home favorite, but with the Red Sox displaying prowess in their recent games, sharp bettors have nudged the line to -115. Some shops are even hinting at -120. At DraftKings, the Red Sox have garnered 75% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, highlighting a "low bets, higher dollars" bet spread.
Notable Stats: Home favorites have won 66% of the time this season, earning an 8% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record have prevailed 69% of the time, making a healthy 11% ROI. The Red Sox present a powerful offense, hitting .254 with 41 home runs and 172 runs scored compared to the Twins' .234 average, 26 homers, and 124 runs scored.
Fun Fact: The Red Sox are batting .264 at home, the third-best average in MLB, while the Twins are hitting just .215 on the road, placing them 19th.
9:38 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-180, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Tigers (21-12) have clinched the first two games of this series, winning 10-4 as -150 road underdogs on Monday and then securing another victory 9-1 yesterday as -190 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Tigers rely on Jack Flaherty (1-3, 3.34 ERA), while the Angels (12-19) respond with Kyle Hendricks (0-3, 6.65 ERA).
The line opened with the Tigers as -170 road favorites, but with the Tigers' demonstrated success, sharp bettors have driven the line to -180. Some shops are even teetering on -185. At Circa, the Tigers are receiving a substantial 80% of moneyline bets and an astonishing 98% of moneyline dollars, a clear sign of large, sharp "low bets, higher dollars" wagers on the Tigers.
Money Talks: Favorites with line movement have triumphed 65% of the time this season with a 7% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season have also prevailed, winning 65% of the time while returning a 5% ROI. Saturday favorites with a winning record have an impressive 69% win rate, earning an 11% ROI. The Tigers outshine the Angels on offense, hitting .252 with 164 runs scored compared to the Angels' .213 average and 111 runs scored.
Fun Fact: Hendricks has surrendered three or more earned runs in three consecutive starts, and the Angels have lost all three of those games.
In the matchup between the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals, the Mets have seen a shift in odds due to their recent success, with lines moving from -140 to -150 and -155 in certain shops. The Mets also have an impressive 86% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings. In the evening game, the Boston Red Sox are seeing similar support, as lines have moved from -110 to -115 and -120 in some shops, and have received 75% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings. In the late game, the Detroit Tigers are the favorites against the Los Angeles Angels, with lines moving from -170 to -180 and -185 in certain shops, and have received a substantial 80% of moneyline bets and an astonishing 98% of moneyline dollars at Circa Sports. Moneyline bettors on these Saturday games are favoring favorites with line movement, as they have won 65% of the time this season and have a 7% ROI.
