MLB Relief Pitcher Wagering Strategies Review for May 5th

MLB Relief Pitcher Wagering Strategies Review for May 5th

Twitter Facebook Email## MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for May 5:

This past week was a profitable one for my MLB Bullpen Systems, as all of them improved except for the "Easiest" angle. It was a week full of late wins and losses, so teams seemed to be treading water in terms of their ratings, although one team particularly suffered a terrible statistical week.

Before sharing the updates on the system records, the biggest news is that I found a solid foundational system that has been performing consistently since the start of last season. I named this system the IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, and it demonstrates how even lesser-quality teams can have an edge in games where they get the starting pitching and bullpen advantages. So far this season, it's hitting at nearly +20% ROI and we will be tracking it moving forward.

Here are the detailed records of the system, and it has eclipsed +11% ROI for the entire 2024 regular season. We’ll be including this in our daily MLB Analytics Reports.

Now, let's take a look at the updated results of the regular season for the various betting systems, through Sunday, 5/4:

The quickest way to play the bullpen system

- For the '25 season, better rated bullpen teams that weren’t heavy favorites (-190 or higher), or were heavy favorites and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 245-202 for +9.36 units.

We've lost ground in each of the last two weeks, but this system remains a strong strategy overall. And remember, it's important to have VSiN Pro Access to the MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com to fully utilize these strategies.

Newfound IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN AND STARTER

- Back teams with both a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating, particularly if they have an even or worse record in games where they have both the bullpen and starter advantages.

This system has gone 53-29 for +16.2 units, and an ROI of 19.8% since the start of the season. We'll be adding it to the daily MLB Analytics Reports moving forward.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or more when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%

- In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or more and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! So far in 2025, these teams are 27-6 for +12.65 units.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage of 19% or higher over opponents

- A system discovered in the middle of the 2023 season found that some big favorites prove worthy of backing consistently due to the games being absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was +2.3%.

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the most lucrative system in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons

- Combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or more, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. This represented an ROI of -41.1%, but so far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive at 30-11 for +3.75 units.

Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long

- Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings have won nicely over the last two seasons, going 701-790, for +46.27 units. So far in 2025, the results have been lackluster, with a record of 76-103, for -14.92 units, but we did manage to capture back +6.27 units last week.

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have a positive win percentage

- Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (-110 to +144) in competitive games, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI of 1.1%) in the full 2024 season.

Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks

- Teams with a worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating that are looking to extend a streak have gone 428-485, for -78.6 units, and an ROI of -8.6%.

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks

- In the 2023 season, better bullpen teams that looked to extend a three-game winning streak, those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units proved to be a respectable and consistent system.

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks

- Better bullpen teams on a three-game losing streak have gone 231-159, for +40.34 units, maintaining strong consistency with an ROI of 10.3%.

Remember, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or through the MLB Analytics Report. The pitching systems are just one component of a very comprehensive handicapping library.

Here are the current team bullpen statistics, updated for games through Sunday, May 4th, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.

Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, May 4th)

Top 5 Bullpen ERAs1. SAN DIEGO: 1.732. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.533. DETROIT: 2.574. HOUSTON: 2.845. TAMPA BAY: 2.97

Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs30. LA ANGELS: 7.0229. WASHINGTON: 6.5528. BALTIMORE: 5.0827. MILWAUKEE: 4.8726. MIAMI: 4.83

Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs1. SAN DIEGO: 0.972. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.033. DETROIT: 1.054. HOUSTON: 1.115. CINCINNATI: 1.15

Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs30. LA ANGELS: 1.7329. WASHINGTON: 1.6628. BALTIMORE: 1.6227. MIAMI: 1.5326. ATHLETICS: 1.46

Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings1. TORONTO: 10.532. NY YANKEES: 10.083. HOUSTON: 10.034. SAN DIEGO: 9.535. MINNESOTA: 9.53

Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings30. SEATTLE: 7.1729. KANSAS CITY: 7.2528. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.2927. ST LOUIS: 7.3826. CINCINNATI: 7.46

Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs1. PHILADELPHIA: 0.862. ATLANTA: 0.913. SAN FRANCISCO: 0.984. SAN DIEGO: 1.015. CINCINNATI: 1.02

Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs30. LA ANGELS: 2.5929. WASHINGTON: 1.7528. BALTIMORE: 1.7327. MIAMI: 1.6626. TEXAS: 1.62

As a manual process of analyzing daily box scores, I determine the Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the final number is a reflection of the stats listed above, while also taking talent, injuries, and momentum into account.

Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 4/28:

Biggest upward movers (PR points):

1. KANSAS CITY: +7 points
2. ARIZONA: +4
3. CHICAGO CUBS: +4
4. CINCINNATI: +4
5. COLORADO: +4

Biggest downward movers (PR points):

1. LA ANGELS: -17 points
2. HOUSTON: -7
3. BALTIMORE: -74
4. TEXAS: -54
5. MINNESOTA: -54
6. CLEVELAND: -54
7. MIAMI: -5

Steve's Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 5/5):

Rank - Team - Bullpen PR

1. SAN DIEGO: 33
2. LA DODGERS: 25
3. NY YANKEES: 23
4. SAN FRANCISCO: 23
5. ATLANTA: 22
6. DETROIT: 21
7. HOUSTON: 20
8. NY METS: 18
9. CLEVELAND: 17
10. TAMPA BAY: 17
11. ARIZONA: 15
12. MINNESOTA: 12
13. TORONTO: 11
14. KANSAS CITY: 10
15. ATHLETICS: 8
16. TEXAS: 7
17. MILWAUKEE: 7
18. BALTIMORE: 6
19. PHILADELPHIA: 4
20. CHICAGO CUBS: 3
21. CINCINNATI: 3
22. SEATTLE: 2
23. BOSTON: -2
24. ST LOUIS: -3
25. PITTSBURGH: -5
26. CHICAGO WHITESOX: -8
27. MIAMI: -10
28. COLORADO: -10
29. WASHINGTON: -13
30. LA ANGELS: -20

These are sorted by bullpen ranking and overall team power rating.

As we head into this week's games, there are two teams on 3+ game winning streaks (SD, SF) and two teams on 3+ game losing streaks (PIT, COL).

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1. The IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN AND STARTER, which has gone 53-29 for +16.2 units since the start of the season, demonstrates the potential edge even lesser-quality teams can have in games where they get the starting pitching and bullpen advantages.
2. In the 2023 season, the better bullpen teams that looked to extend a three-game winning streak, those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units proved to be a respectable and consistent system.
3. Teams with a worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating that are looking to extend a streak have gone 428-485, for -78.6 units, and an ROI of -8.6% in the past.

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