MLB Predictions Today: Selection of Games Based on Betting Statistics, Power Values, and Trends for Thursday, May 1st
Ready for some action? Let's dive into the top picks and betting trends for today's games! 💰💥
Top MLB Resources 🔢⚾️
- Today's MLB Games 🗓️
- Parlay Calculator 🤜🤛
- Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines 📊
- MLB Odds 🎲
- MLB Betting Splits 📈
AJ's Angles 🌟🎯
Here are the top MLB betting trends for today's games, personally handpicked by analyst AJ Makinen at VSiN:
Trend:
- BOS is 6-18 (-12.97 units) in the -120 to +100 line range with starter Tanner Houck 🧙♂️ (FADE for BOSTON vs TOR 🇨🇦 at -112).
MLB Series Betting System #10:
- Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win with 6 or more runs hold a strong record of 318-259 (+58.53 units, 10.1% ROI) since 2022. This trend only applies when they are not priced at +175 or worse. (🚨 PLAY DETROIT vs LAA ☔ at -120).
System #1:
- When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line bet, teams have fared well, winning 70.7% of the time (+12.6% ROI) since 2023. Keep your eyes peeled for strong home teams like NYM and SF 🏠.
MLB Bullpen Systems 🕰️💥
Steve Makinen's weekly MLB update provides the following recurring systems, which are a great way to bet on teams based on their bullpen strength:
System Matches (PLAY ALL):- CHI, CIN, NYM, PHI, CLE, TPA, TEX, TOR, DET, MIL. 💪💪💪
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage higher than the opponent:- A strong system in 2023-2024 with a 252-103 record, earning +8.01 units and a 2.3% ROI. (🚨 PLAY SAN FRANCISCO at COL 🇨🇦)
Better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle:- In 2023, this system was the most lucrative with a record of 160-122, but for -115.88 units (-41.1% ROI). However, it has turned back towards normal in 2025. (✋ FADE SAN FRANCISCO at COL 🇨🇦)
Better bullpen underdogs:- Over the last two seasons, these underdogs have won 701-790 games, earning +46.27 units. In 2025, they've had a slow start, with a record of 61-93 for -22.25 units. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on teams like the CHI 🐺, CIN 🐯, CLE 🐅, TOR 🇨🇦, and PIT 🐱.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data 📊📈
When betting with DraftKings data, analyze the majority handle and number of bets on sides, run lines, and totals to get an idea of the public's sentiment. For today's games, keep these trends in mind:
- Fade majority handle on sides as they have had a losing return since 2023 (-5.3% ROI)
- Fade majority handle on run lines since 2023 (-4.5% ROI)
- Fade majority handle on totals since 2023 (-2.3% ROI)
System Matches:
- Fade majority handle on games involving PIT 🐾, TB
- In today's MLB game between Boston and Toronto, it's noted to avoid Boston, given they've performed poorly with starter Tanner Houck in the -120 to +100 line range, recording a 12.97 unit loss so far.
- AJ Makinen's trend shows that teams playing the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win with 6 or more runs have a strong record of 58.53 units since 2022. Application of this trend for Detroit against Los Angeles is advised at -120.
- Steve Makinen's system suggests backing teams with strong bullpen ratings and a winning percentage higher than the opponent when they are big favorites (-190 or more). San Francisco, in their game against Colorado, is a notable pick for this system.
- Analytical data indicates that betting on teams with a stronger bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been profitable, with a record of 160-122 in 2023-2024, but it's been struggling in 2025. Despite this, teams like Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Toronto, and Pittsburgh are still worth keeping an eye on.
- When analyzing DraftKings data, it's advisable to fade the majority handle on sides, run lines, and totals, as they have had poor returns since 2023.
- It's also worth noting that fading majority handle on games involving Pittsburgh has shown a losing return since 2023.
