MLB Predictions for NRFI and YRFI on Friday, May 16th
Friday Frenzy: Your MLB NRFI and YRFI Predictions for May 16, 2025
Let's unleash the chaos and smash the bookies with our savvy picks for the MLB schedule on May 16! Strap in, grab your cold ones, and let's dive into the madness.
We're breaking down three electrifying games that'll rip through your screens like a freight train, and we're testing our cajones with some bold predictions and risky wagers.
Get your bets in now!
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks - May 16, 2025
Guardians vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee (Guardians) vs. Brady Singer (Reds)
This one's a doozy, folks. The ERA for both pitchers is just above the two mark when examining their first time through the order. That's kinda strange, 'cause their xFIP is knocking on four's door, which is usually a red flag. But, when we're dealing with a nine-run total and some sexy plus money on a YRFI, we gotta roll the dice, right?
Especially when we're talking about Great American Ball Park —one of the damn best offensive parks in baseball. Its run-scoring abilities are off the charts, as it boosts scoring by a staggering 16% compared to Progressive Field where Bibee normally plays. That statistics-driven variance might help reveal the difference between raw ERA and xFIP numbers.
On the other side, Singer's showing an overall ERA of 4.97, so it ain't like he's been fortunate his first time around. Cleveland's got a killer top lineup, ya dig? So, it's gambling on the improbable that the scoring continues at that pace.
Nationals vs. Orioles NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Mackenzie Gore (Nationals) vs. Cade Povich (Orioles)
Here's a fun fact for you: according to the ol' model, the Nationals have nearly double the chance of scoring in the first inning than the Orioles tonight. But, let's not confuse that with an outright win for the first inning. Still, that's a pretty powerful building block.
What truly seals the deal is the starting pitching. MacKenzie Gore is shaping up to be a late-bloomer rockstar this season. The Orioles aren't exactly murderers when it comes to raking against lefty pitchers, sliding into the league basement. Gunnar Henderson is their only hitter in the first four batting spots with above-average wRC+, but he's currently batting a measly .163.
Cade Povich ain't no picnic, either, with an xFIP of 4.39 that jumps to 4.45 the first time through the order. The top three Nationals hitters are doing well this season, so it's a dicey proposition that they'll continue to whiff.
The other option is the two-way moneyline, which returns your cash in case of a tie or NRFI. The Nats are -105 at Caesars in this one, kids.
Twins vs. Brewers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Joe Ryan (Twins) vs. Chad Patrick (Brewers)
This game presents a tricky setup with the Twins' typically solid top lineup seemingly missing their best hitter tonight. Byron Buxton, the dude leading the team in home runs and steals, as well as the only top-of-the-order hitter with a wRC+ over 110, has been sidelined due to the concussion protocol.
On top of that, the Twins are going up against Chad Patrick, someone who's got a 1.02 ERA in his first time through the order this season.
On the other hand, Joe Ryan's showing an ERA of 3.50 for his early game appearances, but his xFIP tells a different story, sitting at a cool run lower. He's also enjoying a massive park upgrade from Minnesota to Milwaukee, where scoring drops by a whopping 10%.
If you ain't lucking out with the -120 at BetMGM, both DraftKings and Caesars have -125 lines for ya.
Remember to wager responsibly!
!Sources
- https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/study-guides/mlb-stats.php
- https://www.theScore.com/mlb/analysis/2471657
- https://www.theScore.com/mlb/columns/2489813
- https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/study-guides/mlb-stats.php
- https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2025&month=05&season1=2025&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=& Play nicely, y'all! Make smart choices and may the odds be ever in your favor.
On May 16, 2025, both the Guardians and Nationals games promise to be low-scoring matches due to the strong performances of their starting pitchers - Tanner Bibee for the Guardians and Mackenzie Gore for the Nationals. In fact, their first-time ERA is above 2, while their xFIP is closer to 4.
A potential high-scoring game could be the Twins vs. Brewers, given the uncertainty surrounding the Twins following Byron Buxton's absence due to concussion protocol, and the solid start Chad Patrick has made in his first time through the order this season.
