MLB Predictions Based on Bet Splits, Power Rankings, and Trends for July 1st
In the world of Major League Baseball (MLB) betting, analysts rely on trends and advanced statistics to identify profitable wagers. On July 1, 2025, VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen has highlighted several intriguing betting angles based on historical data and advanced ratings.
One of the top recommendations involves backing Arizona Diamondbacks at home, especially when Zac Gallen is starting. Over the last 19 home divisional starts by Gallen, Arizona has recorded a strong 14-5 (+7.07 units) win-loss record. This trend positions Arizona as a recommended play at -137 versus the San Francisco Giants.
Another trend to consider is home favorites that have performed well after hitting four or more home runs in their previous game. Over the last 5+ seasons, such teams have gone 331-167 (66.5%) for +43.06 units and an ROI of 8.6%. This suggests betting on these teams could be advantageous.
Boston Red Sox is another team that analysts are backing, with a recommended play at -114 versus Cincinnati. The favourable betting splits and power ratings indicate a promising opportunity.
Teams with even or worse season records but better bullpen and starting pitcher ratings have also proven to be profitable. Since 2024, these teams have gone 301-196 for +65.71 units (ROI 13.2%). For July 1, Milwaukee (+104 at NYM) and Kansas City (+118 at SEA) are matches for this system and are recommended plays.
Interestingly, teams on winning streaks of five games or more but with under 50% season win percentages have outperformed in their attempts to extend streaks. These teams have gone 69-54 (+20.48 units, ROI 16.7%) in their last 123 games. Miami (+122 vs. Minnesota) is a system match for this trend and is a play worth considering.
Conversely, teams with poor bullpens and a poor starting pitcher have struggled when not matched up against the same. These teams have gone 84-171 for -36.74 units. Washington (+129 vs. DET) and Colorado (+129 vs. HOU) are examples of system matches for this trend.
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment, going 69-54 (+20.48 units, ROI: 16.7%) in their last 123 tries to extend streaks.
Lastly, home teams that scored well last game are generally a bad bet in the next outing. Teams like Miami, Washington, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Boston, Texas, LA Dodgers, and Seattle are advised to be faded in their next game.
These trends provide valuable insights for MLB bettors, leveraging historical data and advanced ratings to identify profitable wagers for July 1, 2025.
1.In the July 1, 2025 MLB games, analyst AJ Makinen recommends backing Arizona Diamondbacks at home, particularly with Zac Gallen starting, as they have a strong winning record of 14-5 in their last 19 home divisional games.
- Another trend to consider is betting on teams that have hit four or more home runs in their previous game and are home favorites, as these teams have gone 331-167 for +43.06 units over the last 5+ seasons.
- Analysts have also identified the Boston Red Sox as a recommended play with a -114 odds versus Cincinnati, due to favorable betting splits and power ratings.
- Teams with better bullpen and starting pitcher ratings, even if they have an average or worse season record, have been profitable. For July 1, Milwaukee (+104 at NYM) and Kansas City (+118 at SEA) are recommended picks according to this trend.
