MLB Predictions and Picks for Thursday, May 8th: Insights, odds, and suggestions for today's Major League Baseball games
MLB Best Bets Today, May 8: Fresh Perspective
Seeing as the evening isn't packed with matches, we're left with just four games for tonight: Reds vs. Braves, Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks, Blue Jays vs. Angels, and Phillies vs. Rays. With early games causing complications due to time differences and other factors, the focus shifts to the night's four games.
I'm steering clear of the second games of doubleheaders, such as Tigers vs. Rockies, due to the uncertainty of Game 1's outcome.
Here are some valuable resources for those looking to place bets in the world of MLB:
- Today's MLB Games
- Parlay Calculator
- Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines
- MLB Odds
- MLB Betting Splits
This article will run from Monday to Saturday, and on Sundays, I'll provide a standalone preview for the Sunday Night Baseball. This year, we'll have Greg Peterson's MLB best bets posted with overnight lines. (Please note that these bets are subject to change as the situation evolves.)
My tracking sheet can be found here, and for transparency sake, I've included tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because of their wide availability and associated betting tools. Remember to always shop around for the best lines; sometimes they'll be at DK, oftentimes they won't. Hunt for the best available deals.
Don't hesitate to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen's Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson's Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves (-205, 8)
7:15 p.m. ET
Spencer Schwellenbach will attempt to bounce back in the final game between the Braves and the Reds. Cincinnati counters with Nick Lodolo, who is the focus of my handicap for this matchup. Although I'll be monitoring Schwelly, I also like a particular player prop for this game.
The Braves have faced their fair share of difficulties against southpaws this season. Their exposure to left-handed pitches is limited, so it's unclear if their numbers will stabilize as the season progresses. However, one thing I bank on is that they won't strike out much against Lodolo tonight. His mechanics have been inconsistent so far, with his arm angle and release point shifting around. He has delivered his best performances when his arm angle is at its highest. In his last start, it was comfortably lower than usual, and the result was a poor outing against the Nationals.
Lodolo has only surpassed 4.5 strikeouts in two games this season. One of those instances was in a game with a high arm angle but against the Mariners, who excel in swing-and-miss opportunities and have the fourth-highest SwStr% and the lowest Z-Contact%. The other instance was against the Rockies, who have the highest SwStr% and the third-lowest Z-Contact%. The Braves sit in the middle of the pack in both categories.
Lodolo has registered four games with a single-digit SwStr%. The three games with double-digit SwStr% were against Seattle, Miami, and Colorado, all teams with major contact issues. As an oft-injured pitcher, I pay closer attention to mechanics and arm angle/release point variations as potential warning signs for discomfort. Although Lodolo's low arm slot is an effort to stay healthy and optimize his arsenal, this has led to some inconsistency.
Lodolo has issued just seven walks this season, indicating that he's generally pitching to the strike zone. I believe the Braves will be aggressive tonight as a result, given their success against left-handed pitchers.
Pick: Nick Lodolo (CIN) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Toronto Blue Jays (-130, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
Although the road trip for the Blue Jays has started poorly, losing two in a row, they'll count on Chris Bassitt in hopes of finding stability in this game. The Angels will turn to Jose Soriano, interestingly, in this matchup.
A few caveats about my analysis here: Some of my observations might seem speculative, but my belief is that Soriano has been nursing what I call a "dead arm" period throughout the second half of April. Following a peak velocity of 98.7 mph against Cleveland on April 4, his velocity dropped in each subsequent start until he found it again in his last outing. He clocked 97.7 mph with the four-seam and 96.6 mph with the sinker, recording six shutout innings, five strikeouts, and just one walk.
Toronto's pitching staff has been struggling as of late and might offer a favorable opportunity for Soriano to log some length in this contest. Despite the Blue Jays' struggles, their offense has continued to perform exceptionally well, averaging nearly 5.9 runs per game.
Soriano's BABIP is currently at 0.322, a figure that may be a bit inflated. Similar to my analysis of Lodolo, I looked at Soriano's mechanics and underlying data for the season. He had a significant innings increase from 2023 to 2024, going from 42 MLB innings over 38 appearances and 23.1 innings at Double-A to 113 innings at the MLB level over 20 starts and two relief outings. It's not surprising to see a degree of struggle at the start of this season and a velo decline, considering the sharp increase in innings.
Soriano's arm angle rose a bit in his last outing, and the vertical release point reached its season high. Although it didn't reach the level established in 2023, it was close. I believe Soriano is getting stronger and starting to resolve some of the bad habits that emerged early in the season.
Soriano has seen a slight uptick in the walk rate, but opposing hitters put a ball in play on over 70% of their plate appearances. Despite the Blue Jays' tendency to strike out and walk less (especially against righties), I believe they'll give Soriano some trouble as they're an aggressive hitting team.
Thus far, the Angels have secured six innings from Tyler Anderson and six innings from Yusei Kikuchi, both of whom pitched well against Toronto's struggling offense. Soriano can follow suit in this game.
Pick: Jose Soriano (LAA) Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
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Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Thursday May 8th
- From Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines, his best bet for tonight's games is on Nick Lodolo (CIN) to have under 4.5 strikeouts, with odds at +105.
- The odds for tonight's Blue Jays vs. Angels game are Toronto Blue Jays (-130) and the over/under is 8.5 runs.
- In tonight's MLB matches, expert picks include Torontos Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Angels, as well as games between the Reds and Braves, and the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.
- For those interested in sports betting, MLB Odds, MLB Betting Splits, and various MLB betting tools like the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, Umpire Stats, and Steve Makinen's Daily Ratings, can be found online.
- The upcoming game between the Blue Jays and Angels will see Chris Bassitt and Jose Soriano on the mound, with potential for stability and aggressive hitting from both teams, based on analyze of each pitcher's mechanics and performance trends.
