MLB Matchup: Mariners and Twins Forecast, Wagers, Preferred Selection, Betting Insight
On June 26, 2025, the Minnesota Twins welcome the Seattle Mariners to Target Field. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. You can catch the action on MNNT and MLB.TV.
The Twins are slated as -125 favorites on the moneyline, while the Mariners are pegged at +105. The run total? It's sitting at 8.5.
Curious about our take on this matchup? Check out our Mariners vs Twins prediction and MLB pick below.
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Picks
Let me let you in on my best bet—both teams go under the total runs. Be sure to secure the best odds by checking our updated MLB odds page.
Seattle Mariners vs Twins Odds, Spread, Lines
Run Line
| Mariners Odds || --- || Run Line | Total | Moneyline || 1.5-200 | 8.5-125 о / +105 у | 105 |
Total
| Twins Odds || --- || Run Line | Total | Moneyline || -1.5+165 | 8.5-125 о / +105 у | 125|
Moneyline
Mariners vs Twins Betting Preview
One nifty Action Labs betting system—inspired by the brilliant Evan Abrams—fits this game like a glove.
1.5-200
The Unders With Soft Starters and Neutral Winds system targets Unders in MLB games where the home pitcher, who has a modest WHIP and strikeout rate, starts in the third or fourth game of a series.
8.5-125o / +105u
By the third game, hitters have typically seen a variety of pitchers, refining their scouting reports. In weather-neutral settings, scoring often remains lower due to an overall slower pace, even for less powerfully-thrown starters.
105
With the home team already deep into the grind, the market often overlooks the scoring slow-down in these conditions. Check out the SP and pitching trends for more insight on today's matchup.
System Rationale
Seattle's Emerson Hancock (5.13 xERA, 9.2% K-BB, 87 Stuff+) and Minnesota's Simeon Woods Richardson (4.99 xERA, 10.6% K-BB, 88 Stuff+) are prime candidates for this system, as they're categorized as "softer" pitchers. Despite this, the system is designed to identify value in arms like these.
Although I hold Hancock in higher regard, he's had performances both good and bad. His encouraging outings have often been balanced by meltdowns against strong offenses (e.g., 6 ER vs DET, 7 ER vs NYY, 9 ER vs CHC). The Twins field a middle-of-the-road offense versus right-handed pitchers and are currently in a slump (93 wRC over the past two weeks).
Another factor to consider is the profound strength of Minnesota's bullpen, possessing an impressive fWAR of 4.1. On the other hand, Seattle's relief squad has been healing recently (3.78 xFIP over the past two weeks).
Run Line
With lower-scoring games trending, I'm inclined to back the under in this contest utilizing our Sports Insights tools.
Total
Betting Trends to Watch
Moneyline
- Spread Bets: A majority of bets (52%) and money (52%) back the Twins to cover the spread.
- Moneyline Bets: Approximately 59% of bets and 62% of the money are on the Mariners to win outright.
- Over/Under Bets: An overwhelming 90% of both bets and money are on the over.
Mariners vs Twins Weather Forecast
-1.5+165
The official forecast for the game will be available closer to game time. However, historically, Target Field is known for warm and welcoming weather, with low rain chances in June.
8.5-125o / +105u
Sources:1. Baseball-Reference: Mariners vs Twins2. MLB VIP: MLB Odds Today3. ESPN Bet: Moneyline4. Covers: Live Money Percentages5. Sports Insights: MLB Public Betting & Money Percentages
-125
The upcoming matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins could see a lower number of runs, as the Under seems to be the best bet according to the 'Unders With Soft Starters and Neutral Winds' system. This system targets Unders in MLB games where the starter has a modest WHIP and strikeout rate, starting in the third or fourth game of a series, and in weather-neutral settings. Both Emerson Hancock of the Mariners and Simeon Woods Richardson of the Twins fit this criteria, and the Twins' middle-of-the-road offense and Minnesota's strong bullpen further support this prediction. Additionally, a majority of bets and money are on the Over, suggesting the market might be overlooking the potential for a lower-scoring game.
