MLB Matchup Forecast: Yankees versus Rays, Wager Recommendation, Odds on August 19
The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are set to square off on August 19, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. EDT and will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
In this highly anticipated matchup, the Yankees are a -137 moneyline favorite, while the Rays are the underdogs with odds near +108 to +120. The game is expected to be competitive and relatively close, reflecting tight win probabilities and varied opinions on run line coverage.
Rays' starting pitcher is RHP Shane Baz, who has had mixed results in his past seven outings, boasting a 6.51 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. On the other hand, the Yankees' starting pitcher is LHP Carlos Rodon, who has performed solidly in 2025, with a 3.25 ERA, 3.17 xERA, and 3.85 FIP. However, Rodon's fastball velocity has decreased, now living around 92-95 MPH.
Junior Caminero, Brandon Lowe, and Yandy Diaz are the only players in the Rays lineup consistently hitting well. The Yankees' lineup ranks 13th among MLB lineups with a 102 wRC+ in August, but they have the highest walk rate in MLB. Ben Rice is performing well for the Yankees, posting a 148 wRC+ in August.
The Yankees' lineup ranks 27th among MLB lineups with a 77 wRC, and Giancarlo Stanton had limited at-bats in the Yankees' series versus the Cardinals due to recovery from playing three games in the outfield.
The consensus leans toward a Yankees moneyline win, with the game likely competitive and total runs hovering around 8, making over/under a coin toss. The run line bet on Rays +1.5 has statistical appeal as a value bet given the close predicted score and Rays' ability to keep the game tight.
[1] Betting Projections
[2] MLB Odds Comparison
[3] SportsLine Picks
[4] FanDuel MLB Picks
[5] MLB Betting Trends
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