MLB Hall of Fame Probabilities: Secured Candidates and Surging Contenders
Gunning for Greatness: The Path to the MLB Hall of Fame
Cracking the MLB Hall of Fame is a notorious feat among big North American sports. Only 1.2% of athletes make it to Cooperstown, requiring at least ten long years in the big leagues. The NFL, on the other hand, has inducted fewer players (1.1%) but lacks the longevity rule, as revealed by ESPN.
With stars like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw gracing the fields today, it's tempting to believe they're already destined for the ultimate individual honor in baseball. However, injuries can derail careers, and even the slightest setbacks, such as Trout's recent thumb injury, can cast doubts on the seemingly certain.
But who will join the ranks of the legendary? Let's take a gander at some frontrunners among today's stars. Golden names might be missing from this list – just drop your favorites in the comments, and I'll shine the spotlight on them!
MLB HALL OF FAME ODDS: ACTIVE PLAYERS
Albert Pujols (Angels): 1/999
Stats speak volumes when it comes to justifying Pujols' inevitable induction. For instance, he's about to breeze past 600 home runs, all while keeping a career batting average over .300. Unless Pujols engages in some cruel, murderous activities or a PED scandal surfaces, his first-ballot induction is a no-brainer.
Ichiro Suzuki (Marlins): 1/999
Ichiro is set for first-ballot induction, thanks to his impressive resume that includes meeting all pre-requisites. Despite a nearly decade-long stint in Japan before making it to the big leagues, the speedy outfielder still managed to secure a spot in the exclusive 30-person, 3,000-hit club. He's also bagged the record for most hits in a single season - a whopping 262 - and has batted over .350 an impressive four times.
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): 1/499
Kershaw is cruising toward his tenth season, meeting the duration criteria. He's arguably the best pitcher of all time when comparing his stats to contemporary greats. A prolific striker-outer, he's quickly approaching 2,000 total strikeouts, boasts a career ERA below 2.4 (trending downwards), and maintains a WHIP barely over 1.0. Playoff "struggles" won't keep Kershaw out of the Hall of Fame.
Adrian Beltre (Rangers): 1/99
Beltre is the most surprisingly guaranteed HOF induction ever, barely registering on the national radar despite hitting nearly 450 homers, batting .286, and posting a career WAR of 90.2 (30th all-time) – a tally that already outranks Hall of Famers like Ken Griffey Jr., George Brett, and Joe Dimaggio.
Miguel Cabrera (Tigers): 1/85
Cabrera rounds out the guaranteed Hall of Famers among active players. With 500 home runs on the horizon – a veritable ticket to Cooperstown – Cabrera has consistently shown both power and finesse at the plate. The two-time MVP has never been just a power hitter, with a career batting average over .320 heading into season fifteen.
Mike Trout (Angels): 1/50
Trout is still waiting for his sixth full season to make him eligible, but his first five years could already earn him a spot in the Hall of Fame. He's already bagged two MVP awards, and his performance in the votes ensure that Trout stays at the top of the game.
Madison Bumgarner (Giants): 1/1
Bumgarner shines with solid regular-season stats through his ninth year in the big leagues: a 2.99 ERA, 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings, over 1,400 total strikeouts, and a 1.097 WHIP. He'll likely be remembered for his playoff heroics, leading the Giants to a title in 2015. Working against him are his lackluster Cy Young placements and the possibility of his arm burning out in the 2020s.
Bryce Harper (Nationals): 1/1
Harper has shown HOF-worthy brilliance in his short career. His outstanding 2015 season boasted a stunning .330 batting average, 42 home runs, and a 1.109 OPS. Although his performance dipped slightly in 2016, he's back on track for 2017 with a .328 batting average, 15 homers, and a 1.093 OPS. Harper needs years of consistent greatness to fully secure his spot in the Hall of Fame.
Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox): 5/3
Pedroia still has some ground to cover. He was unbelievably elite for a couple of seasons and even won an AL MVP award, but his career WAR is only just over 50 – significantly lower than the Hall of Fame average for second basemen (69.3). Pedroia is unlikely to reach milestones like 3,000 hits, and injuries are starting to become a concern for the 33-year-old.
Aaron Judge (Yankees): 9/1
Judge is a raw talent with immense potential, capable of leading the next Yankee dynasty. But as an aspiring rookie, he's hardly more than a wild card in the Hall of Fame race. Notable first-year players have had promising starts that didn't translate into long-term HOF careers, so Judge has a ways to go before locking down his place in Cooperstown.
In the quest for Cooperstown, Albert Pujols of the Angels has odds of 1/999, indicating a near-certain first-ballot induction with over 600 home runs and a career batting average over .300. Ichiro Suzuki of the Marlins shares the same fate, given his almost guaranteed first-ballot induction due to meeting all pre-requisites and breaking records like the most hits in a single season.
Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers, with odds of 1/499, is on track for his tenth season and his first-ballot induction seems likely, as he arguably ranks among the best pitchers of all time. Adrian Beltre of the Rangers, whose odds of 1/99 make him the most surprisingly guaranteed HOF inductee, boasts nearly 450 homers, a career batting average of .286, and a WAR of 90.2.
Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers, another guaranteed HOF inductee with odds of 1/85, is closing in on 500 home runs and consistently demonstrates power and finesse at the plate. Meanwhile, Mike Trout of the Angels, expected to make his Hall of Fame eligible in his sixth full season, already boasts two MVP awards, although his odds of 1/50 hint at a longer and more difficult journey.
Lastly, while Madison Bumgarner of the Giants and Bryce Harper of the Nationals have shown HOF-worthy stats, they still have room for improvement in terms of consistency and milestones, with Bumgarner working against potential "playoff struggles" and Harper needing years of great performances to fully secure his place in the Hall of Fame. Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox and Aaron Judge of the Yankees, despite their impressive careers, currently have longer odds at induction due to Pedroia's relatively low career WAR and Judge's raw talent and lack of longevity in the big leagues.
