MLB Forecasted Wagers for May 5: Probabilities, prognostications, and recommendations for the games on Monday
𝗛𝘁𝗮 𝗕𝗹𝗹 𝗔𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯's 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗜𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗦𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝗱 May 5
We've got ten games happening tonight in MLB, and all of 'em are nighttime or evening starts. It stinks not having day baseball, but that means more time to analyze the card and process the data we've gathered on these pitchers and lineups.
There are five games in the NL, three interleague games, and only two games in the AL, so we'll kick off some fresh series tomorrow while also working with the series we already have for today.
Here are some top resources for MLB on May 5:
- Today's MLB Games
- Parlay Calculator
- MLB Daily Lines by Greg Peterson
- MLB Odds
- MLB Betting Splits
This piece will run every Monday-Saturday, and I'll be writing a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we'll also have best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
For those who value transparency, here's my tracking sheet, and I've got tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook, as they are widely available and because of some of our betting tools. Reminder: always shop around for the best lines!
Feel free to make use of my opinions, thoughts, and the suite of MLB Betting Tools on this website, like the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen's Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson's Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
𝗕𝗼𝗺-𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘇 𝗦𝗼𝘁𝗮 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗺-𝗡𝗮𝗹𝗹 (-𝟭𝟰𝟮, 𝟭.𝟫)
7:15 p.m. ET
The Reds and Braves face off in Truist Park, with Atlanta coming off a Sunday Night Baseball win against the Dodgers and Cincinnati wrapping up a disappointing 3-4 home series.
Brady Singer starts for the Reds tonight, and I think his due date for a rough outing is rapidly approaching. He has a 3.24 ERA, 3.64 xERA, and a 3.64 FIP, but his .244 BABIP is nearly 70 points lower than his career average, and he had some strong defenders during his years in Kansas City. His newfound propensity for fly balls is concerning due to Great American Ball Park being his home stadium, and I'm not feeling optimistic about a start in the humid conditions of Georgia.
Singer hasn't allowed a home run in his first two starts, but this has changed in his last four, where he's seen regression to the mean. His Hard Hit% is up to 44.2%, and he's running a 10.5% Barrel%. With the rise in fly balls, we haven't seen a significant increase in pop-ups, as he holds a 5.4% IFFB%. His K% should regress, with a 10.6% SwStr% and no significant improvements to his F-Strike% or Chase Rate. In fact, Singer ranks in the 22nd percentile in Chase%. He's in the 12th percentile in average exit velo, 28th in Barrel%, 29th in Hard Hit%, and he is allowing the highest Pull% of his career. A tough outing is on the horizon. The Braves offense has been improving after a sluggish start to the season.
Atlanta sends out AJ Smith-Shawver, who has been dealing with some discomfort. He brings a 4.26 ERA, 6.53 xERA, and a 4.23 FIP into this start, with a .385 BABIP but an 82.7% LOB%. He's tallied 22 K in 19 innings and issued nine walks. Smith-Shawver has a 43.6% Hard Hit% and a 14.5% Barrel%, indicating why he has a .385 BABIP against. He has an 87.2% Z-Contact%, which I find troubling for this start. He's been relying heavily on chases, with a Chase% of 31.4%. I don't think Smith-Shawver consistently has the zone control to be overly effective against the Reds' offense, which ranks in the top five in terms of not swinging at pitches outside the zone.
So, I'm expecting runs in this one. I trust the Braves' offense more, so I like their 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 at +110, their full-game total Over 4.5 at -105, as the Reds' bullpen is a regression candidate with a 3.65 ERA, but a 4.83 FIP and a 4.67 xFIP. Finally, I like the full-game Over 8.5 at -115.
Picks: Braves 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110); Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-105); Reds/Braves Over 8.5 (-115)
𝗛𝘂𝗽 𝗦𝗼𝘁𝗮 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗺-𝗠𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱𝗮𝗿 (-𝟭𝟰, 𝟭.𝟫)
9:40 p.m. ET
It was a long day on Sunday for both of these teams. The Mets played two in St. Louis and arrived in Phoenix at around 10:30 p.m, while the Diamondbacks required an additional inning to claim an 11-8 victory over the Phillies and returned home at about 9 p.m. No respite for tired souls here as they dive back into action against each other following last week's clash.
Griffin Canning has been an uplifting story this year, and I've been following him closely. However, I'm starting to feel a bit uneasy about some recent trends. Though he's been effective the last few starts, his four-seam fastball percentage has spiked to 44.1%, 33.3%, and 40%. Perhaps these increases were related to specific matchups, but Canning's fastball is -27.3 runs below average per Statcast.
With a significant rise in GB%, Canning's 8.0% HR/FB% is a career high. Normally guys with high GB rates end up with higher HR/FB% because they aren't generating the same fly ball sample as others. Canning has only given up two home runs so far, but I anticipate this total rising soon. His 84.6% LOB% is probably not sustainable for long.
Canning has squared off against the Nationals, Phillies, Cardinals, Athletics, Blue Jays, and Astros thus far, with those teams ranking 18th, 11th, 9th, 15th, 29th, and 23rd in wOBA against RHP. The Diamondbacks sit at third with a .348 wOBA and are tied for first in homers in that split. I could see some shine coming off in this matchup.
Arizona deploys Ryne Nelson, as Corbin Burnes takes a skip in an effort to address some shoulder discomfort. Nelson has a 5.82 ERA in his 17 innings of work, but two outings with high ER have inflated his ERA. He actually has a 2.19 FIP and a 3.35 xERA, so he's thrown fairly well overall. He's only allowed one Barrel thus far and most of his hard-hit contact has been on the ground or to the big part of the ballpark. We've noticed an uptick in velocity from Nelson, which might not be sustainable as a starter, but Stuff+ likes his repertoire a lot this season compared to past years.
The Diamondbacks needed five relievers yesterday, but all of their pitchers are available for this game since they had lighter workloads on Saturday and Friday. The Mets needed six relievers across both games yesterday.
I'm taking a gamble with the Diamondbacks here, returning home after a victory and Canning possibly due for a tough outing soon.
Pick: Diamondbacks -111
𝗖𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗧𝗰𝗵 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘁 𝗔𝗹𝘁𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗿𝘀 𝗡𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗬𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗿𝗮:
- Red Sox Moneyline (+106) vs. Texas Rangers (Greg's handicap: Red Sox -109)
- Reds Moneyline (+188) vs. Atlanta Braves (Greg's handicap: Reds +154)
𝗔𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗿𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗺:
- Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Home Runs (-176)
- Logan O'Hoppe Over 1.0 Home Runs (+290)
- AJ Pollock Over 2.5 Total Bases (+126)
- Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs (-135)
- Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 Runs (+170)
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Runs (-128)
- J.D. Martinez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+113)
- Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Total Bases (-139)
- For sports fans interested in baseball, Garret's expert Pick for May 5 MLB game between the Reds and Braves suggests betting on the Braves 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110), Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-105), and the total of Reds/Braves Over 8.5 (-115).
- In another May 5 MLB game between the Mets and Diamondbacks, Garret's pick favors the Diamondbacks (-111) due to potential troubles for Griffin Canning and the solid performance of Ryne Nelson.
- Besides games, visitors can find resources for MLB on May 5 such as Today's MLB Games, Parlay Calculator, MLB Daily Lines by Greg Peterson, MLB Odds, and MLB Betting Splits, along with various betting tools like DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen's Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson's Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
