MLB Expert's Picks for Win Totals before Opening Day: Focus on These 3 Teams with 6-0 Win Expectations
Opening Day of the 2025 Major League Baseball (MLB) season is mere days away, signaling the return of America's pastime. As the win total projections have been released for all 30 teams, it's time to assess some of the most promising teams for the upcoming season.
Over the previous two seasons, I have achieved a remarkable 6-0 record with my MLB win total bets. This year, I have solidified my picks ahead of the 2025 season. Here's a closer look at three teams I believe will surpass their win totals.
Oakland Athletics (Over 71.5 Wins)
One of the teams with the lowest win totals has caught my eye. With a projected 71.5 wins, the Athletics have a ceiling that I believe they can easily exceed. In the 2024 season, the Athletics surpassed their win total with 69 victories, demonstrating their potential.
This year, the Athletics boast a young lineup featuring Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler, both of whom recently signed contract extensions. Additionally, the team will be playing in a minor league stadium, which fans believe will bolster the team's offense. The Athletics' offense was eighth in the league for home runs last season and aims to duplicate that performance in 2025.
While the pitching staff struggled in 2024, the team has brought in talent such as Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs to bolster their rotation. Severino posted a 3.91 ERA in 2024, and Springs boasts a solid 3.27 ERA in seven starts. The Athletics can also rely on their young closer, Mason Miller, and recently-acquired Jose LeClerc, who will serve as the setup man for Miller.
Furthermore, analysts believe the AL West division could be weaker this year. The Astros are dealing with key departures, while the Rangers should improve but have to manage injuries. The Mariners and Angels round out the division, giving the Athletics a prime opportunity to overachieve.
Cincinnati Reds (Over 78.5 Wins)
Moving to the NL Central, the Reds present another enticing win total pick. The Reds have won at least 77 games in three of their last four seasons and have young stars, such as Elly de la Cruz and Hunter Greene, who appear poised to lead the team to success in 2025.
While pitching could be problematic, Greene ended 2024 on a strong note with a 1.89 ERA in August and a 1.29 ERA in September. To further support the team, the Reds have brought in Brady Singer, who could stabilize the rotation. The bullpen also has potential with Emilio Pagan, Taylor Rogers, and Graham Ashcraft projected to shift to the bullpen in 2025.
Cincinnati has brought on veteran manager Terry Francona, who is known for getting the most out of his players. If Nick Lodolo and the rest of the Reds' back-end starters can step up, this team will undoubtedly clear 79 wins in 2025.
Boston Red Sox (Over 86.5 Wins)
Lastly, I believe the Red Sox' projected win total of 86.5 games is well within reach after they won 81 games in 2024. The Red Sox had a significant offseason, with acquisitions such as Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet, and Walker Buehler. The team hopes for a complete season from Trevor Story and the return of Lucas Giolito from injury. Top prospect Kristian Campbell also earned a spot on the Opening Day roster, adding to the team's excitement.
While the AL East may seem dominated by teams like the Yankees and Orioles, some analysts believe a downward trend has set in for the division. Teams like the Blue Jays and Rays have shown signs of decline, particularly with rumors surrounding Vlad Guerrero Jr.'s potential trade with Toronto. As a result, the Red Sox have a renewed opportunity to compete at the top of the AL East and surpass their projected win total.
While bullpen concerns remain, with Aroldis Chapman now part of the roster, I believe the Red Sox are poised to take the next step and win more than 87 games in 2025.
When making any sports bet, it's essential to understand the current market context. The highest projected win totals belong to teams such as the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves, while teams like the Reds are considered mid-tier and offer betting value if they exceed expectations. Sportsbooks like DraftKings frequently update their lines throughout the season, so be sure to stay informed.
As you prepare for the 2025 MLB season, consider these three win total picks and enjoy a successful betting experience!
In the 2025 Major League Baseball season, the Oakland Athletics, with a projected win total of 71.5, have the potential to exceed this ceiling due to their young lineup, offensively boosted by Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler, and improved pitching led by Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Mason Miller, and Jose LeClerc.
The Cincinnati Reds, who have a win total projection of 78.5, are another team to watch, as they have young stars like Elly de la Cruz and Hunter Greene, a promising pitching staff anchored by Brady Singer, and the addition of veteran manager Terry Francona.
Lastly, the Boston Red Sox, who won 81 games in 2024, have increased their chances of surpassing their projection of 86.5 wins, after a significant offseason of acquisitions, including Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and the return of Lucas Giolito from injury.
