MLB Betting Split Recommendations for May 4th Sunday Games

It's the weekend wrap-up, and we've got a hefty 16-game MLB schedule to dive into. Let's dissect where the smart money is gravitating towards in three matches, utilizing our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are live and accurate every 5 minutes, pulled directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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1:35 PM ET: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles (-140, 9.5)

We're reaching the rubber match of a three-game series. The Orioles (13-19) claimed the opening game 3-0, staying strong as a -140 home favorite. The Royals (18-16) retaliated with a 4-0 win yesterday, cashing as a -110 road pick'em.

In the series finale this afternoon, the Royals place their faith in right-hander Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.48 ERA), while the Orioles entrust fellow righty Kyle Gibson (0-1, 22.09).

This line initially had the Orioles as a -120 home fave, with the Royals at +105. Sharp bettors have pounced on the Orioles for modest chalk at Camden Yards, significantly boosting them up to -140.

At Circa, the Orioles are receiving 67% of bets and a humungous 99% of money, demonstrating a distinct "low bets, high dollars" split, a signal of respected, professional wagers backing Baltimore in Vegas.

Historically, home favorites like the Orioles here have prevailed 211-116 (65%) with a 6% ROI this season. Home favorites following a loss have fared even better, standing tall at 81-43 (65%) with a 9% ROI. Sunday home favorites after a loss are 20-9 (69%) with a whopping 16% ROI. Teams that made the playoffs the previous season have held strong at 159-89 (64%) with a 4% ROI. And opponents who were shut out in the previous game as 25-15 (63%) with a 6% ROI.

The Orioles possess the more potent offense, hammering 38 homers and scoring 123 runs compared to the Royals, who've managed just 18 homers and 109 runs.

The Orioles offer sub-optimal value as a sub-.500 team featuring a high ERA starting pitcher against a high-.500 team with a lower ERA pitcher.

2:05 PM ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies (-150, 9)

The Phillies (10-14) have won the initial two games of this three-game series, capturing the opener 3-2 as a -155 home favorite and then prevailing again yesterday 7-2 as a -125 home fave.

This afternoon's series finale sees the Diamondbacks (17-16) unleashing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (1-3, 6.06 ERA) against the Phillies' fellow southpaw Ranger Suarez, returning for his 2025 debut after going 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA in 2024.

The line started with the Phillies as -130 home favorites, with the Diamondbacks at +110. Although the line remained relatively steady for quite some time, late heavy steam hurled the Phillies up from -130 to -150.

At Circa, the Phillies are only collecting 55% of bets but a significant 96% of money, highlighting a "low bets, high dollars" imbalance favoring the Phillies.

When home favorites boast a winning record like the Phillies here, they normally come out on top 117-55 (68%) with a 9% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement supporting them, who made the playoffs the previous season, rack up victories at an 119-55 (68%) clip with a 10% ROI. Non-division home favorites with steam receiving 5-cents or more are sitting pretty at 61-27 (69%) with an 11% ROI. As for when both teams are above .500, the favorite queues up wins 44-25 (64%) with an 8% ROI.

The Phillies are batting a stellar .274 at home (#3) and .264 against lefties (#6).

Rodriguez has surrendered an 8.16 ERA in three road starts this season.

The Phillies are 13-5 at home.

2:10 PM ET: Chicago Cubs (-120, 7.5) at Milwaukee Brewers

The Cubs (21-13) have seized the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 10-0 as a -125 road favorite and then capturing game two 6-2 as a -115 road favorite.

In the series finale this afternoon, the Cubs send out lefty Shota Imanaga (3-1, 2.77 ERA), and the Brewers call on righty Freddy Peralta (3-2, 2.52 ERA).

The line started relatively evenly, with both sides listed around -110 odds. However, wiseguys seem to be sticking with the status quo, backing the Cubs to clinch the sweep, lifting Chicago up from -110 to -120.

Favorites with line movement in their direction like the Cubs here, are 213-121 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season.

The Cubs boast a considerable edge at the plate, hitting .265 with 52 homers and 208 runs scored versus the Brewers, who've only mustered .239 with 28 homers and 161 runs scored. The Cubs are batting .277 on the road (#2). In comparison, the Brewers are keeping it down at .229 at home (#24).

The Cubs have the superior bullpen, showing a team ERA of 4.41 vs the Brewers (#3 worst in MLB).

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Insightful Tidbits:

"Low bets, higher dollars" in MLB betting refers to situations where the quantity of wagers placed on a particular outcome is modest, but the amount of cash wagered on that outcome is much higher than on the conflicting side. This is typically indicative of professional or "sharp" bettors favoring one side over the other.
Sharp bettors, or "wiseguys," often place larger bets. When there's a significant disparity between the volume of bets and the money wagered, it demonstrates that sharp bettors are heavily favoring one side. This disparity can induce line movement.
Although these betting splits don't directly influence game outcomes, they can reflect a well-reasoned expectation of performance based on available information. Bettors can align their wagers with sharp money or adopt a contrarian strategy, betting against the sharp money if they believe the public or casual bettors are placing less informed bets.

The MLB series between the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles concludes this afternoon with the Royals relying on Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.48 ERA) and the Orioles on Kyle Gibson (0-1, 22.09). Sharp bettors have boosted the Orioles' odds from -120 to -140, as they receive 67% of bets and 99% of money at Circa Sports, signaling professional wagers backing Baltimore in Vegas.
The Arizona Diamondbacks face the Philadelphia Phillies at 2:05 PM ET today, with the Phillies having won the first two games of the series. Ranger Suarez, returning from his 2025 debut, goes up against lefty Eduardo Rodriguez for the Phillies. After a period of stability, late heavy steam has pushed the Phillies' odds up from -130 to -150, despite only collecting 55% of bets but a significant 96% of money at Circa.
In a battle of division rivals, the Chicago Cubs (-120, 7.5) take on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs have dominated the first two games of the series, and smart money seems to be on their side, moving the Cubs' odds from -110 to -120 as they look to sweep the series with lefty Shota Imanaga on the mound.
As you indulge in more MLB action, don't forget to check out resources such as MLB Matches Today, the Parlay Calculator, Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines, MLB Odds, and MLB Betting Splits.
Familiarize yourself with the term "low bets, high dollars" in MLB betting. It refers to situations where the quantity of wagers placed on a particular outcome is modest, but the amount of cash wagered on that outcome is much higher than on the conflicting side. This disparity can induce line movement and is typically indicative of professional or "sharp" bettors favoring one side over the other.