MLB Betting Recommendations for May 30th: Insights and Predictions for Friday's Games
As the work week draws to a close, baseball enthusiasts have 15 major league games to choose from on Saturday, May 31. With smart money already placed on three matchups, we turn to our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, painstakingly updated every five minutes, for insight into where the shrewdest bets are being made at DraftKings and Circa Sports.
News, resources, and odds:- Today's MLB Games- Parlay Calculator- Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines- Current MLB Odds- MLB Betting Splits
7:07 p.m. ET: Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays (-175, 8.5)
Last night saw the Blue Jays trounce the Athletics 12-0, easily clinching the series opener as odds-on favorites. Meanwhile, tonight's rematch pits lefty Jeffrey Springs against righty Chris Bassitt.
In the initial betting, Toronto was slated as a -150 home favorite, with the Athletics as +130 underdogs. However, the sharp money has steamed the Blue Jays up to -175, as they command 75% of total moneyline bets and an impressive 96% of moneyline dollars at Circa.
The Blue Jays have substantial system value as non-division favorites, with their unfamiliarity potentially benefiting the presumed winners. Siding with Toronto, home favorites with odds of -170 or more, demonstrating line movement in their favor, has yielded a 71% win rate this season, carrying a 3% return on investment (ROI).
Toronto's pitching has been steadier of late, boasting a 2.15 ERA over their last ten games compared to Oakland's 7.38. Additionally, the Blue Jays' bullpen excels, posting a 3.52 ERA compared to Oakland's 6.07 (the third-worst in the MLB). In his last five starts, Bassitt is 4-1 with a 1.61 ERA at home, but the Blue Jays have won four out of his last five outings.
Moreover, Toronto performs better against left-handed pitches (eighth-best in the MLB) and at home, while Oakland's performance falls below average against righties on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-140, 8.5) at Texas Rangers
In their previous series, the Cardinals took two of three against the Orioles, wrapping up the series with a 6-4 victory as underdogs. In contrast, the Rangers dropped two out of three to the Blue Jays, losing the finale 2-0 as favorites.
Tonight's Interleague series opener features a duel between lefty Michael Liberatore and righty Jack Leiter.
Initially listed as -130 road favorites, the Cardinals have attracted bets, moving their odds to -140. Both DraftKings and Circa show a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" discrepancy favoring the road chalk, with the Cardinals drawing 74% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, and 60% and 79% of moneyline bets and dollars, respectively, at Circa.
When teams come off a day off, such as these two squads, home favorites typically hold a 67% win rate with an 8% ROI. Furthermore, when these conditions align with Interleague favorites priced -135 to -160, the success rate jumps to 63%, offering a 6% ROI.
The Cardinals boast a stronger offense, with a .262 batting average and 269 runs scored compared to the Rangers' measly .219 batting average and 185 runs scored. Liberatore has also posted a stellar 2.22 ERA in his May starts, surrendering just 7 earned runs in 28.1 innings pitched, while Leiter has struggled with a 5.20 ERA in the same time frame.
9:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-200, 7.5)
The Pirates and Padres conclude their three-game series tonight, with pitchers Mitch Keller and Nick Pivetta taking the mound. These teams have had contrasting series results, with the Pirates upsetting the Diamondbacks, and the Padres dropping the final game against the Marlins.
Initially priced as -185 home favorites, the Padres have gained additional bets, pushing their price up to -200. Both DraftKings and Circa indicate one-way "low bets, higher dollars" support for the Padres, as they have claimed 88% and 95% of moneyline dollars, and 75% and 93% of moneyline bets, respectively.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season hold a strong 66% win rate with a 6% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite's success rate rises to 67%, offering an 8% ROI. In the opening game of a new series, home favorites have a 66% win rate, yielding a 5% ROI.
The Padres have a substantial edge in offensive production, with a .253 batting average, 52 home runs, and 233 runs scored compared to the Pirates' .226 batting average, 40 home runs, and 183 runs scored. Pivetta has been especially successful at home this season, posting a 4-0 record and a 1.44 ERA.
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- In the MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres, the Padres, currently priced at -200, have gained support from bettors, particularly in the moneyline market.
- According to current betting trends, the Padres have attracted 75% to 95% of moneyline bets and 88% to 95% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings and Circa Sports, respectively.
- When home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season play a game that both teams have had a day off, they typically hold a 67% win rate, offering an 8% return on investment (ROI). In this context, the San Diego Padres might be a shrewd choice for sports bettors.
