MLB Betting Predictions for Friday, 16th May
Revamped Article:
Crack open a cold one and gear up for a action-packed MLB Friday with 15 thrilling matchups on the docket! Let's dive into three intriguing games of the day, using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits to scratch the surface of where the smart money is flowing.
Your Essential MLB Go-To's:
- Today's MLB Schedule
- Parlay Calculator
- Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines
- MLB Odds
- MLB Betting Splits
2:20 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (-225, 11.5)
The Sox (14-30) gave it their best shot but couldn't snag the sweep against the Reds, falling short 7-1 as +205 underdogs. Not unlike the Cubbies (25-19), who dropped the series finale 3-1 as -220 home favorites against the Marlins.
Today's Interleague series opener will see Shane Smith (1-2, 2.08 ERA) pitch for the White Sox, while Cade Horton (1-0, 6.75 ERA) toes the rubber for the Cubbies.
With a fat opening line of -205 for the Cubs and the Sox at +175, sharps aren't shying away from the hefty chalk, laying the wood on the Cubbies, boosting the home favorite from -205 to -225.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are whistling home to the tune of 87% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. Meanwhile, at Circa, the Cubs are savoring 50% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars- solid proof of the heavier, shrewd wagers in Vegas cashing in on the Cubs to snag a win at Wrigley.
Home favorites -200 or more have a strong track record of 73-19 (79%) with an 11% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a loss, the favorite is 31-13 (71%) with a 14% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 77-43 (64%) with a 6% ROI. The Cubs have got this game in the bag, as they've clawed their way to a commanding 12-4 (75%) record following a loss this season, making them baseball's best "bounce back" team.
The Cubbies have a major advantage when it comes to rest versus being worn out, as they had the day off while the Sox battled it out in Cincinnati and now have the long journey ahead to Chicago. Rested favorites coming off a day off boast a 66-33 (67%) record with a 9% ROI this season.
Offensively, the Cubs are the heavyweights with a .250 average, 63 dingers, and 244 runs, compared to the Sox with merely a .214 average, 32 homers, and 149 runs. The Cubs hold their own against righties with a .245 batting average (16th), while the Sox lag behind at .211 (30th).
The Cubs have proven themselves at home, sporting a 12-10 record. As for the Sox, they've only managed to nab 5 wins on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-190, 8)
Last night, the Rangers (24-21) took down the series opener 1-0 as -130 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Astros (22-21) lineup Lance McCullers (0-1, 15.75 ERA), while the Rangers counter with Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 1.78 ERA).
The line opened at -170 for the Rangers, with the Astros coming in as +150 underdogs. Despite an even split in public bets, the Rangers have been steamed up to -190 thanks to the respected wiseguys hitching their wagons to the home team.
In a nutshell, home favorites off a win with a winning record, like the Rangers, have proven their mettle with a 104-52 (67%) record and a 6% ROI this season. Home favorites -150 or more have a commanding 137-60 (70%) win-loss record with a 4% ROI. Home favorites in the opening game of new series have a powerful 86-41 (68%) win percentage with a 9% ROI.
Coupled with a lower total game (8), the Rangers offer correlative betting value, with expectations leaning towards the "better" team with the fewer amount of runs scored driving the victory.
The Rangers have shown their dominance at home, boasting a 16-8 record. Conversely, the Astros have struggled on the road with a 7-12 record.
McCullers has a questionable history in his last start, tallying 7 earned runs in a mere one-third of an inning pitched against the Reds. On the other end of the spectrum, Eovaldi has flourished in his two May starts, amassing a 0.69 ERA over 13 innings pitched.
10:15 p.m. ET: Athletics at San Francisco Giants (-200, 7)
The Athletics (22-22) stumbled against the Dodgers in their last series, taking a 19-2 loss as +215 underdogs. The Giants (25-19), on the other hand, also came up short in the final game of their series against the Diamondbacks, falling 8-7 as -105 home dogs.
This Interleague series opener pits JP Sears (4-2, 2.80 ERA) for the A's against Logan Webb (4-3, 2.60 ERA) for the Giants.
With a starting line of -170 for the Giants and the A's at +150, the smart money has rolled in on San Francisco, pushing the home favorite from -170 to -200.
At Circa, the Giants reap 56% of moneyline bets but an astounding 84% of moneyline dollars, a significant "low bets, higher dollars" discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites -200 or more have garnered a solid 73-19 (79%) win-loss record, boasting an 11% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a loss, the favorite has a 31-13 (71%) win-loss record with a 14% ROI. Interleague home favorites have a strong 77-43 (64%) record with a 6% ROI. Home favorites in the opening game of new series have a commanding 86-41 (68%) win-loss record with a 9% ROI.
Zoning in on the "rest vs tired" factor, the Giants have a clear edge, as they were off yesterday while the A's faced the Dodgers and now must trudge to San Francisco'sField. Rested favorites coming off a day off have turned in a solid 66-33 (67%) win-loss record with a 9% ROI this season.
The Giants possess cogent betting value as favorites in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of runs scored more likely coming from the "better" team who is expected to win. The Giants boast a top-tier bullpen, sporting an impressive 2.68 team ERA (first in MLB), while the A's struggle with a 5.75 team ERA (third-worst).
Webb has been a force at home, with a 2-0 record and a 0.44 ERA, compared to his 2-3 record and a 3.86 ERA on the road.
The Cubs, favored at -225, are drawing in a significant portion of the smart money, with 87% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, boosted from the initial -205 line. Similarly, the Rangers have been steamed up to -190 after starting at -170, despite an even split in public bets, due to the influence of shrewd bettors. Lastly, the Giants have garnered a sizable 84% of moneyline dollars at Circa, despite having only 56% of moneyline bets, with home favorites -200 or more recording a 73-19 (79%) win-loss record.
