MLB Bets Predictions by Steve Makinen based on Split Analysis and Betting Systems for August 11th
MLB Betting Trends for August 11, 2025
The MLB season continues to unfold, and VSiN Analytics has once again provided valuable insights for the day's games. Here are some key trends and system matches to consider:
Trend to Fade: Andrew Heaney
Andrew Heaney has struggled as a road underdog, posting a 2-20 record and losing -17.52 units since the start of 2024. If he takes the mound for Pittsburgh in their game against Milwaukee, fading the Pirates (+167) might be a wise choice.
Home Teams Coming off Poor Pitching Performances
Teams that have allowed 16 or more hits in their previous game have had a positive run of 314-278 (53% win rate) since 2018, with a +22.13 units profit and a 3.7% ROI. Keep an eye on teams that fit this trend.
System Matches to Play
San Francisco (-137 vs. San Diego) and Texas (-164 vs. Arizona) were highlighted as strong plays. Both teams have shown promising trends this season, and backing them could be a profitable decision.
System Matches to Fade
Small home favourites in the range of -111 to -180 performing poorly in the first game of a homestand have struggled. Examples to consider fading include Cincinnati (-126 vs. Philadelphia), Kansas City (-156 vs. Washington), and Athletics (-113 vs. Tampa Bay).
Teams on Losing Streaks but with Decent Pitching
Teams that have lost their last four games but allowed 6.0 runs per game or fewer during that streak have performed well, with a 244-252 record, +16.99 units, and a 3.4% ROI. Teams that fit this trend, such as Texas, could be worth considering.
Pitching Matchups
Teams with strong bullpens and an elite starting pitcher have performed well, with a 276-150 record and +37.82 units in profit when not matched against the same. Conversely, teams with poor bullpens and a poor starting pitcher have struggled, with a 112-207 record and -33.51 units in loss when not matched up against the same.
Under the Total
Several teams have shown a trend of going under the total this season. The Philadelphia Phillies have gone under the total in 35-20-4 (+13.00 units) of their road games, the Rangers have gone under in 39-20-1 (+17.00 units) of their home games, and the Tampa Bay Rays have gone under in 22-10-1 (+11.00 units) when facing left-handed starters. Additionally, the Arizona Diamondbacks have gone under in 11-3-2 (+7.60 units) when on the road against teams with a win percentage of 0.480 or higher with starter Ryne Nelson.
These trends reflect a combination of statistical splits, betting systems, and situational factors that VSiN's analysts use for handicapping on that date[1]. As always, it's essential to do your own research and consider all factors before making any betting decisions.
[1] VSiN Analytics, a leading provider of sports betting information, uses a combination of statistical analysis, betting systems, and situational factors to help bettors make informed decisions. For more information, visit VSiN.com.
- On August 11, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates might be a good team to bet against if Andrew Heaney starts the game, given his poor record as a road underdog in recent years.
- Teams that allow 16 or more hits in their previous game have had a positive trend with a 53% win rate and a 3.7% ROI since 2018, making them worth considering in future games.
- The San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers were highlighted as strong plays by VSiN Analytics due to their promising trends this season, with a potential for profit if backed.
- Caution should be exercised with small home favourites performing poorly in the first game of a homestand, as teams like Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Athletics could be worth considering to fade.
