Straight Talkin' with the Chancellor: Merz's Bold Approach to Trump
By Volker the Bloke
Mission commences: Merz embarks on a grueling, challenging journey.
On Thursday night, German Standard Time, Chancellor Merz will hobnob with US President Trump for the first time. This face-off is the pièce de résistance of his fresh chancellorship and likely the most significant encounter of the year. Three burning issues will dominate the discussion.
The air is thick with expectancy - as Chancellor Friedrich Merz straps into his seat for takeoff to Washington, he embarks on a dicey mission. Waiting for him in the White House is President Donald Trump. What was once a cordial visit has now transformed into a daunting challenge.
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Flinging a high ball can backfire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky got the cold shoulder and the boot. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa had to endure a harangue concerning racism against whites. And Germany is one of Trump's all-time favorite piñatas. Key phrases include German cars in the US, defense, and alleged gags on free speech. Germany is always the target. What'll stop Trump from giving Merz a hard time? Seeing as his Vice, JD Vance, is an ardent supporter of the AfD, it's anyone's guess.
Moreover, this trip is the bee's knees. If Merz can crack open a rapport with Trump, it could help with at least three major problems: Ukraine, trade, and joint defense in NATO.
Ukraine and Sanctions
Merz stands firmly behind Ukraine's side and dreams of Trump doing the same. However, Trump sees himself as a go-between and seeks peace, hoping to kibosh the whole matter once and for all. He's even tossing around Peace Prize notions, can you believe it?
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Merz'll attempt to sway Trump into enforcing shared sanctions. For Trump, that's a big ask - he'd have to abandon his go-between role. He's dead set on avoiding being drawn into a conflagration. While the sanctions imposed by his old pal, Joe Biden, are still in place, and the US continues to supply arms, none of it happened at Trump's behest.
Merz is taking off for Washington at a relatively favorable moment. After Russia's massive air raids, Trump grumbled about Putin. Just recently, he said, in his phone gab with Putin, that castles in the air ain't nowhere to be found. While the Senate is pushing for more sanctions, the idea is Steve's, who popped by Berlin last Monday and chatted Merz up. Graham told the "FAZ" that Merz should thank Trump for lifting the sanctions against Syria. He should show Germany will go the distance and that Europe's willing to put up with pain.
Trade and Tariffs
Trump struggles to keep his eyes on the prize - he appears to have no fixed principles, except for tariffs. He's been howling for them for years. While China is his go-to target, the EU is close behind. He reckons there's a humongous trade deficit between the US and the EU, but he overlooks services. US titans like Facebook, Google, and Apple rake in billions in Europe through online services, amounts that don't factor into Trump's equations.
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Trump believes the value-added tax (VAT) is a tariff. As recent as yesterday, CDU foreign policy expert Jürgen Hardt clarified in the Bundestag that it's not. VAT can be tossed off as a pre-tax sum, he explained. Merz will have to work the well-greased campaign trail to iron out this issue with Trump. He'll advocate for axing tariffs, ideally to zero - proposing a win-win for all. Otherwise, China could muscle in on Europe, a warning recently issued by his party buddy Norbert Röttgen in the Bundestag.
Hammering out a deal seems doable. In the US, Trump's dodging legal bullets. A court's ruled his tariffs unlawful, and they're only hanging around until a final ruling. Trump could unveil a new trade deal with the EU as a win, which could up the ante on China.
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Nevertheless, nothing's set in stone. Once upon a time, Trump's goal was to bring entire industries back to the US with tariffs, so keeping them afloat would be a priority. Merz's got the goods, but whether they impress Trump remains to be seen.
Defense and NATO
According to Trump, Europeans are riding the gravy train while Americans perform the heavy lifting. He sees NATO as a US volunteer security force for Europeans that they're late on the draw with, cash-wise. The criticism that Europeans, especially Germans, contribute too little to NATO has some validity, with many German experts concurring.
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Trump has frequently threatened to pull the plug on NATO, effectively unraveling it. While troops, tanks, and aircraft could be swapped out somehow, the nuclear umbrella couldn't. If the US no longer safeguarded Europe with its atomic bombs, Europe would be ripe for Putin's bullying - the hair-raising prospect for German foreign policy, which wouldn't serve the US's interests either.
At least Merz's got some decent news for Trump. Germany will ramp up its defense spending, with whisperings of 5% of GDP, not just 2. However, this is a sleight of hand, as it's really 3.5% for defense and 1.5% for infrastructure, which could be important in a defensive scenario - like bridges for tanks to roll over. A defense case can be argued in various ways.
Still, Merz's got the ammunition. German defense spending will skyrocket, just what Trump's lusted after. Trump can spin this as a triumph under his belt.
Enrichment Data:
Chancellor Friedrich Merz's sit-down with President Donald Trump will unravel several critical topics, encompassing Ukraine, trade tensions, and defense spending within NATO. Here's a rundown of the probable discussions and outcomes:
Key Issues
- Ukraine:
- Objective: Merz is determined to keep the US embroiled in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression. This includes maintaining Western solidarity and potentially increasing military assistance.
- Potential Outcome: The encounter could result in the reaffirmation of US support for Ukraine, potentially leading to increased military and economic backing.
- Trade:
- Objective: Merz seeks to defuse trade tensions between the US and Germany, which could negatively impact Europe's largest economy.
- Potential Outcome: Chats might lead to agreements or compromises on trade policies, potentially smoothing over tariffs and improving economic collaboration.
- Defense Spending and NATO:
- Objective: Trump has repeatedly emphasized the need for NATO members to up the defense ante. Merz may discuss strategies to beef up Germany's military capabilities and contributions to NATO.
- Potential Outcome: The encounter could culminate in commitments from Germany to enhance military spending, aligning with NATO's objectives and addressing long-standing criticisms from the US.
Potential Outcomes
- Improved Relations: Despite past discord between Trump and previous German leaders, Merz's meeting could mark the beginning of a constructive relationship, thanks to their shared business backgrounds and initial positive phone interactions.
- Trade and Security Agreements: The discussions might pave the way for new trade agreements and security partnerships, benefiting both countries and enhancing regional stability.
- NATO Alignment: Enhanced defense cooperation could fortify NATO's stance, addressing concerns about burden-sharing and security in Europe.
Overall, the get-together offers an opportunity for Germany and the US to synchronize on major issues, potentially leading to more stable and cooperative transatlantic ties.
- Politics -: In the face of tense relations between Germany and the US, Chancellor Merz's meeting with President Trump could herald a shift, as both leaders share a background in business.
- Employment Policy -: The outcome of this meeting could significantly impact employment policies in both EC countries, particularly with negotiations around trade and defense spending within NATO.
