Misguided Tactical Presumptions: The Perils of Encouraging Ukraine to Engage in Diplomacy with Russia
The war in Ukraine, initiated by Russia's invasion in February 2022, continues to rage on, with the West's support being crucial in countering Russia's assault on the rules-based international system.
Despite the severe degradation of Russian forces and equipment, it is predicted that it will take Russia years to reconstitute the military force it once possessed. Pushing Ukraine towards negotiations this winter could result in Ukraine formally or de facto accepting the loss of some territory, while maintaining a combat-capable army with continued external support. This could mean Kyiv abandoning near-term NATO membership ambitions, possibly in writing, and making concessions such as relaxing laws on the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church.
However, such a negotiated settlement risks entrenching Russian gains and does not guarantee peace, as Russia's current negotiating posture aims at Ukraine's surrender rather than a genuine peace process. Historical precedents like the Black Sea Grain Initiative show that diplomatic agreements reliant on Russian compliance have often been fragile and subject to violation once military pressure subsides.
Beyond Europe, enabling a negotiated settlement premised on Ukrainian territorial concessions and security guarantees short of NATO could have wider global implications. It could embolden authoritarian powers to use force to revise international borders without enduring consequences, disrupt the broader international rules-based order, weaken Western deterrence, and cause strategic recalibrations in other regions wary of Russia’s example.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian leaders and Western partners emphasize the necessity of legally binding and multidimensional security guarantees to prevent a resumption of hostilities if talks progress. However, Russia’s repeated rejection of direct talks and insistence on veto power over Ukraine’s future security imply deep obstacles to a lasting settlement this winter.
The war's consequences extend beyond the battlefield. Ukraine faces the potential of territorial losses, continued conflict risk and fragile peace, restrictions on its Euro-Atlantic integration, economic and demographic strain requiring large-scale reconstruction aid, and strategic shifts in global power dynamics that reinforce norms favorable to territorial revisionism. Sanction relief for Russia might enable military rebuilding if not carefully managed.
In the midst of this, the United States has provided approximately $20 billion in military aid to Ukraine over the past year, contributing to the destruction of almost 8,000 Russian military vehicles and pieces of heavy equipment. Ukrainian defenders, including First Lieutenant Dean D. LaGattuta, a graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point, have outfought Russian aggressors despite experts' initial anticipation of a quick Russian victory.
As the West considers the path forward, it is crucial to avoid softening its commitment to supporting Ukraine, which would undermine both the Ukrainian defense effort and the broader imperative of countering Russia’s aggression. The United States looks to shift its attention towards deterring Xi Jinping's China, while NATO continues to grow and prioritise the modernization and expansion of its respective militaries.
References:
[1] "The costs and consequences of a Ukraine settlement," The Washington Post, 2022. [2] "The Black Sea Grain Initiative: A fragile peace under Russian pressure," The Atlantic Council, 2022. [3] "Ukraine conflict: Why peace talks are so difficult," BBC News, 2022. [4] "Ukraine seeks security guarantees to prevent resumption of hostilities," Reuters, 2022.
- The ongoing war in Ukraine, instigated by Russia's invasion in February 2022, requires substantial Western support to counter Russia's aggressive assault on the international system, given the complicated military technology and security situation.
- The negotiated settlement concerning Ukraine's territory could involve potential compromises, like Kyiv abandoning near-term NATO membership ambitions and making concessions like relaxing laws on the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church, but this shouldn't be seen as a genuine peace process.
- Negotiating a settlement based on territorial concessions could set a concerning precedent, allowing authoritarian powers to revise international borders without repercussion, challenging the current rules-based order, weakening deterrence, and causing strategic shifts in other regions.
- The future of Ukraine's defense is heavily reliant on legally binding and multidimensional security guarantees to prevent a resumption of hostilities during negotiations, as Russia's recalcitrance towards direct talks implies deep-seated obstacles to achieving a long-lasting peace settlement.
