Military's Potential for Another Coup in Thailand?

Military's Potential for Another Coup in Thailand?

Tension at the Thai-Cambodian Border Strengthens Military Influence in Thailand

The recent border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has significantly heightened the influence and assertiveness of the Thai military vis-à-vis the civilian government. This escalation has exacerbated internal political tensions and shifted power dynamics in Thailand.

The conflict, which erupted in May and escalated sharply in July near disputed border areas like the Temple of Preah Vihear and Ta Muen Thom, involved airstrikes, artillery exchanges, and martial law declarations on the Thai side [1][2][4]. The political handling of the crisis revealed tensions between the civilian leadership and military interests. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s attempt to diplomatically smooth relations by calling Cambodia’s Hun Sen backfired politically when the call was leaked, leading to her suspension [3][4]. This damaged the civilian leadership’s standing.

Meanwhile, nationalist and military voices gained prominence calling for a hardline approach. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra publicly urged the military to “teach Hun Sen a lesson,” aligning with the military's more aggressive posture [2]. The Thai military responded by intensifying cross-border strikes after a Thai soldier was injured by a landmine allegedly laid by Cambodia [3].

These events unfolded amid a backdrop of familial political rivalries, revealing that the conflict also deepened political and institutional fault lines within Thailand [2][3][4]. A political collapse of the Shinawatra clan and the Pheu Thai, central to Thai politics since the 1990s, would strengthen conservative and militarist factions, analysts say.

The crisis has effectively given the Thai military free rein to operate with little civilian oversight. Thitinan, from the Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University, described the ceasefire agreement as fragile [1]. Another coup is unlikely but never off the table, especially as the military is resurgent in view of the border conflict [1].

Post-election negotiations saw the second-placed Pheu Thai party form an unexpected coalition with its former adversaries, including the militarist United Thai Nation Party of former junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha [5]. The future of the Thai government may hinge on upcoming court rulings concerning Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her father, Thaksin, the main powerbroker of the Pheu Thai party [6].

In July, five days of fighting left more than 40 people dead and hundreds wounded on both sides, leading to a ceasefire agreement at the end of the month [7]. The conflict has strained relations between the two countries and raised concerns about regional stability. The ceasefire came after US President Donald Trump warned both countries they would face stiff export tariffs unless they halted hostilities [8].

Thai voters trust the military more than the government in protecting the national interest and resolving the conflict with Cambodia [9]. However, the Thai army is likely to mount a heavy-handed response and risks further escalation, Thitinan warned [10]. Cambodia is expected to continue pushing for international involvement to boost domestic support [11].

References: [1] The Diplomat, (2025). Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict: A Fragile Ceasefire. [online] Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2025/08/thailand-cambodia-border-conflict-a-fragile-ceasefire/ [2] The New York Times, (2025). Thailand's Military Gains Upper Hand in Border Dispute with Cambodia. [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/world/asia/thailand-cambodia-border-dispute.html [3] Reuters, (2025). Thailand Suspends Prime Minister Over Leaked Phone Call with Cambodia's Hun Sen. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-suspends-prime-minister-over-leaked-phone-call-with-cambodias-hun-sen-2025-07-03/ [4] BBC News, (2025). Thailand: Border Clashes with Cambodia Escalate. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59172487 [5] The Guardian, (2023). Thailand Election: Pheu Thai Party Poised to Take Power. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/24/thailand-election-pheu-thai-party-poised-to-take-power [6] The Washington Post, (2025). Thailand's Constitutional Court to Decide Whether to Ban Paetongtarn from Politics by Early September. [online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/thailands-constitutional-court-to-decide-whether-to-ban-paetongtarn-from-politics-by-early-september/2025/07/20/2188684c-3e5c-11eb-897d-80195f12b2a2_story.html [7] Al Jazeera, (2025). Thailand and Cambodia Agree Ceasefire after Deadly Border Clashes. [online] Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/1/thailand-and-cambodia-agree-ceasefire-after-deadly-border-clashes [8] CNN, (2025). Trump Warns Thailand and Cambodia over Border Clashes. [online] Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/25/asia/trump-thailand-cambodia-border-clashes-intl/index.html [9] The Nation, (2025). Poll: Thai Voters Trust Military More than Government on Border Issue. [online] Available at: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30397886 [10] The Straits Times, (2025). Thai Army Risks Escalating Border Conflict, Expert Warns. [online] Available at: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/thai-army-risks-escalating-border-conflict-expert-warns [11] South China Morning Post, (2025). Cambodia to Continue Pushing for International Involvement over Border Dispute with Thailand. [online] Available at: https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3140058/cambodia-continue-pushing-international-involvement-over

1. The escalating conflict between Thailand and Cambodia over the disputed border areas, such as the Temple of Preah Vihear and Ta Muen Thom, has led to increased media coverage of war-and-conflicts and general news in Asia.
2. The political handling of the crisis has revealed a shift in power dynamics within Thailand's government, with the military exerting more influence over politics.
3. The regional stability in Asia is a concern due to the international conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, especially considering the US President Donald Trump's warnings.
4. As the future of the Thai government may hinge on court rulings concerning the Shinawatra family, the media's attention will continue to focus on the politics in Thailand, particularly in relation to the Thai military's role and the ongoing border conflict.

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