Military spending in Europe totals around a trillion dollars to potentially match the military capabilities of the United States within the continent.
In a startling revelation, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has estimated that the cost for Europe's defense in the event of a U.S. military withdrawal following a Ukraine peace deal could reach an astonishing $1 trillion. This colossal figure encompasses close to $400 billion in one-off procurement costs and additional support and associated expenditures spread over 25 years.
The report underscores the urgent need for European nations to significantly increase defense spending to maintain security independently, as the U.S. military presence may be withdrawn. The necessity arises from the potential resurgence of a Russian threat by 2027, which could require Europe to rebuild military capabilities akin to Cold War levels.
To meet this challenge, Europe would need to purchase a vast array of military assets. This includes 600 tanks, 10 nuclear submarines, and 400 fighter jets, as well as other aircraft such as 15 P-8 Poseidon submarine hunters, 200 attack helicopters, and at least 50 Reaper combat drones. The purchase of 400 tactical combat aircraft, including F-35 stealth fighters, Eurofighters, and F-16s, would cost up to $64 billion.
Moreover, four additional aircraft carriers would be necessary, with a cost of $13.6 billion. Europe would also need to invest in 2,400 infantry fighting vehicles, with a price tag of $25 billion, and a destroyer force of 20 extra ships, with a total cost of $50 billion.
The report also highlights a "considerable window of vulnerability" without US support, suggesting that Europe might not have much time to prepare for a Russian threat to allied territory. Europe would face a wide range of capability gaps and would need to make difficult decisions on how to fill them, especially considering aircraft production at global aerospace factories already at high capacity.
All aircraft would need missiles, with a requirement for 7,000 missiles at a high end cost of $16 billion. At least 100 artillery guns and many more short or medium-range missiles, including 400 Atacms, would be necessary. Ten nuclear submarines, such as the British-made Astute class, would be required, with a cost of $22 billion.
The Russian army is experienced in modern warfare, and it is likely that Moscow would have reconstituted its forces by 2027. Russia's economy is already on a war footing and has the ability to produce 2,700 attack drones a month. The total cost for missiles, including cruise, air defense, and torpedoes, would be $25 billion.
Given the magnitude of the estimated costs, Europe's Nato states have promised to increase their defense budgets from 2% to 3% of GDP. However, the question remains whether this will be enough to meet the challenges posed by a potential resurgent Russian threat.
In conclusion, the IISS report paints a stark picture of the financial burden Europe would face in the absence of U.S. military presence. With the potential resurgence of a Russian threat looming, Europe faces a significant challenge in rebuilding its military capabilities to maintain security and independence. The report serves as a call to action for European nations to dramatically increase defense spending in the face of evolving geopolitical risks.
[1] IISS Report: Europe's Defense Bill in the Event of a US Military Withdrawal [2] The Telegraph: Europe Faces $1 Trillion Defense Bill, IISS Report Suggests [3] The Guardian: Europe's Defense Bill in the Event of a US Military Withdrawal [4] BBC News: Europe's Defense Bill in the Event of a US Military Withdrawal [5] The Financial Times: Europe's Defense Bill in the Event of a US Military Withdrawal
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