Military rearings potential for another power seizure in Thailand?
In the wake of the recent border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, the military appears to be strengthening its grip on Thai politics. The volatile situation has exposed vulnerabilities in the civilian government and bolstered the military's role, particularly in security matters.
The border conflict, which erupted in July 2025, has been a significant source of tension. The ceasefire, agreed upon on July 28, 2025, followed intense fighting that resulted in dozens of casualties and displaced over 300,000 civilians from border areas. The conflict involved artillery, airstrikes, including F-16 usage, and civilian areas were heavily impacted, escalating tensions significantly.
The impact on Thailand's civilian government has been profound. The acting Prime Minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, who took office after the Constitutional Court removed Paetongtarn Shinawatra, warned of a possible full-scale war. Meanwhile, prominent pro-military figures were criticised by Cambodian leaders, indicating political-military tensions. The involvement of Thaksin Shinawatra, a controversial former prime minister with a military-aligned background, who publicly called for harsh military responses, further inflamed political polarization.
Martial law was declared in several Thai border provinces, reflecting the military’s activated role in security and crisis management during the conflict. This underscores the military’s continuing strong influence in Thai politics, especially in security matters, and exemplifies how border conflicts can bolster their role. The conflict has also exposed vulnerabilities in Thailand’s civilian government, particularly with leadership instability following judicial removals.
The volatile mix of military involvement and political factionalism could strengthen the military's influence if perceived as the primary protector of national interests. However, another coup is unlikely but remains a possibility, especially due to the resurgence of the military in view of the border conflict.
The conflict has resulted in little civilian oversight over the military. A poll found that Thais trust the military the most in protecting the national interest and resolving the conflict with Cambodia, with only 15% of respondents trusting the civilian government.
The political landscape in Thailand has been shaped by the Shinawatra clan and the Pheu Thai party. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted by the military in 2006, and the niece of Yingluck Shinawatra, who was removed in the 2014 coup, was suspended by the Constitutional Court in early July, pending trial. A political collapse of the Shinawatra clan and the Pheu Thai party could strengthen conservative and militarist factions.
Post-election negotiations saw the second-placed Pheu Thai party form an unexpected coalition with its former adversaries, including the militarist United Thai Nation Party of former junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha. The return of Prayut Chan-ocha is considered more plausible due to the border conflict.
The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has been simmering for over a year and flared in April, resulting in a Cambodian soldier's death during a brief skirmish with Thai troops along the border. US President Donald Trump warned both Thailand and Cambodia about stiff export tariffs if they failed to halt hostilities.
The ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia is fragile, according to Thitinan from Chulalongkorn University. The situation underscores the fragile balance between civilian authority and military influence in Thailand amid nationalist conflicts and border tensions. After the 2014 coup, a junta ruled the country until a civilian government returned following the 2023 elections. The 2023 general election ended with the Move Forward party poised to take power in Thailand.
In conclusion, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has strengthened the hand of pro-junta leaders in Bangkok and reinforced the military's influence in Thai politics. The volatile situation highlights the need for a balanced approach to ensure civilian authority while addressing national security concerns.
- The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, which has been ongoing for over a year, has significantly impacted Thai politics, with the military strengthening its grip as a result.
- The volatile situation, resulting from the conflict, has exposed vulnerabilities in the civilian government, particularly in terms of leadership stability and national security matters.
- The ceasefire agreement between the two countries, while fragile, underscores the delicate balance between civilian authority and military influence within Thailand's political landscape.
- The international media has closely followed the border conflict, highlighting how such conflicts can bolster the military's role in politics, particularly in General-News and International reporting.
