Military Officer Reveals Methods to Disable Russian Aviation Fleet

Availing an Effective Countermeasure Against Russian Air Attacks on Ukraine

Intending to impede Russian strategic aviation from soaring over Ukraine and launching missile strikes, it's essential to steer clear of battering military airfields, as was done during the "Web" special operation. Roman Svitan, a pilot, instructor, and retired Colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, made this clarification in an interview with "Telegraf UA".

According to him, the shortcoming of the enemy can be found in a different location—namely, the oil refineries on Russian soil. In particular, as the expert suggests, it's advisable to demolish reservoirs of aviation kerosene.

"A single Tu-95 consumes one railway tank car, 55 tons. Three railway tank cars of aviation kerosene are required for a Tu-160. Approximately one railway tank car is needed for a Tu-22," Svitan elaborated.

The former pilot highlights that if the military were to destroy these oil refineries, they could invalidate the entire Russian aviation.

"Not destroy, but incapacitate—to prevent them from flying," the retired Colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed.

Moreover, Svitan expressed disappointment with the lack of strikes on the NPPs in Russia that produce aviation kerosene and diesel fuel for the Russian army. While the occupiers are well-supplied with sufficient fuel for the summer period, the experts remark that the Russians have destroyed all Ukrainian oil refineries.

An Insight into the Repercussions:Targeting oil refineries in Russia as a counterstrategy to impede Russian strategic aviation has exhibited some effectiveness but comes with its constraints. Below are some key points to ponder upon:

Advantages

Impact on Oil Supplies: By targeted oil refineries, Ukraine has managed to curb around 10% of Russia's refining capacity. This has compelled Russia to temporarily halt gasoline exports, leading to limited domestic shortages but at the price of lost revenues.
Economic Effects: The strikes have produced substantial monetary losses for Russia, estimated between $658 million and $863 million from September to mid-February. Nevertheless, these financial impacts are relatively minimal when compared to Russia's total revenue from petroleum exports, which was $189 billion last year.

Constraints

Mitigation by Russia: To offset these shortages, Russia has sold more crude oil, but this has led to decreased revenue due to the lower value of crude compared to refined products.
Limited Impact on Aerial Attacks: While targeting oil refineries can disrupt Russia's military logistics, it does not directly impede strategic aviation from bombing Ukraine. The critical factors restraining Russian aviation come from other areas, such as strikes on airbases and vital assets.
Multi-targeted Approach: Ukraine has also focused on striking Russian airbases, which have had a more direct impact on Russia's ability to conduct strategic air campaigns against Ukraine. Recent drone attacks on Russian airfields have incurred substantial damage, estimated at around $7 billion, and have disrupted approximately a third of Russia’s strategic bombers.

Final Considerations

While targeting oil refineries might serve as a part of a broader plan to weaken Russia's military capabilities by imposing challenges on its logistics and economy, its direct role in hindering aerial attacks is limited. The effectiveness of this strategy lies primarily in creating broader economic and logistical problems for Russia, rather than in preventing air attacks directly. As evident, Ukraine's most impactful actions have been the strikes on Russian airbases, which have directly affected Russia's strategic aviation capabilities.

Taking the retired Colonel's advice into account, sabotaging oil refineries in Russia could potentially disrupt Russian strategic aviation's fuel supplies, thereby crippling a portion of their military capability. However, it's important to note that this strategy primarily creates economic and logistical issues for Russia and does not necessarily prevent air attacks directly. Instead, strikes on Russian airbases have shown a more significant impact on inhibiting their strategic aviation's ability to launch attacks against Ukraine. In essence, a multi-faceted approach that addresses both economic and military aspects appears to be the most effective countermeasure against Russian air attacks on Ukraine.