Ain't No Catching Up: Why Conscription Ain't the Answer for Germany's Military Reinforcement
Military Obligation Examination: Understanding Why Compulsory Enlistment Isn't the Answer
The NATO has made a big move, deciding to beef up its troops by around 60,000 in the German Armed Forces - that's triple the current size! But where's this new crew coming from? The force is currently declining, and in Norway, parents are actually complaining that their kids aren't being drafted! Finnish military expert Minna Ålander, speaking at a panel hosted by the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung in Vilnius, thinks conscription might not be the quick fix Germany's looking for.
ntv.de: Mrs. Ålander, is a force of 60,000 soldiers appropriate for Germany's future NATO tasks?
Minna Ålander: The Bundeswehr is struggling to recruit new personnel. But a number of 60,000 seems achievable for Germany. Whether it's enough? That depends on lots of factors, like how fast and drastically the USA cuts its military presence in Europe. Defense Minister Pete Hegseth recently said that Europe needs to wean itself off military dependence on the USA. Prob'ly, the plans will need updates regularly. But it's wise to start with a realistic goal, otherwise it's demotivating.
60,000 new recruits... that's the sound of a renewed conscription debate, right? Many say the current model - where men are drafted at 1 year, volunteers are conscripted, but no one is forced - isn't enough. What's your take?
Conscription, regardless of the model Germany chooses, won't bring immediate results. You might see some results in at least five years, but realistically, ten to fifteen years is more likely. Plus, the infrastructure isn't ready. There are too few trainers, and the Bundeswehr is already stretched thin trying to meet all its demands, even without this increase. Let's compare it to the Standing Brigade for Lithuania, or the 35,000 troops as part of the new NATO structure.
How about our Scandinavian friends? They're managing the increase, right?
Take Sweden as an example: Conscription was reintroduced there in 2017, eight years ago. Now they can train about 8,000 additional personnel per year thanks to conscription. But that's almost nothing compared to the force they need.
Norway? They've got a good concept, right? ex-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is Norwegian.
Norway is struggling with too many applicants; they can't even fit them all in! Parents are even complaining that their children can't fulfill their service because there are no spots available. Still, the number of trained personnel is similarly low in Sweden. Currently, they train 4,000 to 5,000 conscripts annually, fewer than Sweden, as they, too, lack capacity. The infrastructure needed for training and implementing conscription grows slowly. First, personnel need to increase, then larger forces can be integrated. That's the issue when a country starts from zero. Finland's an exception; they train 23,000 conscripts annually, thanks to their uninterrupted conscription tradition. So, I'm concerned that the conscription debate in Germany might distract from what's needed to grow faster: motivating young people to choose the Bundeswehr now.
As professional soldiers?
Exactly. More urgent than conscription is changing the Bundeswehr's negative image and increasing its societal acceptance. While progress has been made, much more needs to be done.
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It's indeed hard to imagine German parents complaining that their offspring can't join the military.
That's why I'm concerned about the conscription debate, as forcing a skeptical generation into the army could shake the existing social contract, which seems risky. It might go well, but it could also give more ammunition to the AfD and others. Additionally, reintroducing conscription could tie up many resources, which would be lacking elsewhere, and results would only be seen in many years. Therefore, I'm skeptical about Germany taking such a step without careful consideration to avoid binding too many resources and developing a socially acceptable model. If focusing on professional soldiers as a short-term solution is more feasible: where and how can one find them in such large numbers? A "Personnel" task force in the Bundeswehr has already turned many screws to make it a more attractive employer. Yet, the troops are shrinking instead of growing. What to do?
Germany is indeed a special case. It's difficult to transplant another country's strategy here, as historical experiences are usually very different. Take Finland as an example: their defense forces and conscription enjoy high societal support due to their successful defense history. Germany lacks such historical experience. Therefore, I think the idea of civil defense could be a good way forward.
PoliticsAlliance partners are massively arming up. NATO countries practice war scenarios in Greece.
Could we start softly by raising awareness that everyone has duties and should contribute to shared security? This would enhance the image of the Bundeswehr. Ultimately, it's not just about Germany. European partners also rely on you, and there's a responsibility there. Just look at Europe on the map: Germany is literally in the middle, and all military movements - north, south, east, west - would have to go through Germany. But does the federal structure allow that? That's something to work on. Moreover, society should ensure that civilian life can continue even during war, like it is in Ukraine now?
Exactly. Imagine if Russia were to attack European metropolises with drones and missiles. Germany would need very stable air defense, but also be able to accommodate refugees from frontline states, treat the wounded - from the Baltic states, from Poland. The healthcare system and hospitals would need sufficient capacity. That's what civil defense is about - building such capacities, securing energy supplies, which will certainly be targeted in war. Payment systems must continue to function. Water supply, food, it has various aspects.
But can civilians, people without expertise, make such a big difference, contribute so much?
In Norway and Sweden, and also in the Baltic states, there's the idea of 'Home Guards', local defense tasks. How do we ensure that civilian life in our village continues during war? People need to understand the connections - what affects whom? Such understanding is necessary to avoid being vulnerable everywhere. It's not about participating in a war elsewhere. The threat situation must be made aware to people in their home countries.
Frauke Niemeyer spoke with Minna Ålander
Source: ntv.de
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Enrichment Data:The strategy for increasing the number of professional soldiers in the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) involves several key initiatives, as Germany seeks to meet NATO's reinforcement demands without reintroducing conscription:
- Increased Military Spending: Germany has committed to raising its military spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2032, with an additional 1.5% dedicated to defense-adjacent infrastructure projects. This significant increase is meant to support the modernization and expansion of the Bundeswehr[1].
- Infrastructure Development: A €500 billion infrastructure fund has been established to revitalize military capabilities, including enhancing critical infrastructure like roads, bridges, and railways, which will support military operations and logistics[2].
- Recruitment and Retention: To grow the army without conscription, Germany needs to focus on improving recruitment and retention rates through enhanced benefits, better living conditions, and improved career paths for soldiers.
- Training and International Cooperation:
- Training Programs: Germany has been actively involved in training Ukrainian soldiers, which not only supports Ukraine but also enhances the Bundeswehr’s operational capabilities through shared training experiences[4].
- International Cooperation: Collaboration with NATO and other European countries, such as France, can help in creating a more integrated and effective defense strategy, leveraging shared resources and expertise[4].
- Addressing NATO Demands:
- Hardware Contributions: Supplying advanced military equipment to allies, such as Ukraine, to demonstrate its commitment to European security[4].
- Strategic Planning: Long-term planning, such as the commitment to sustain support for Ukraine through 2027, reflects a strategic approach to enhancing defense readiness and regional stability[4].
However, as noted in recent discussions, Germany’s ability to significantly grow its military without conscription remains a challenge, and the country is exploring various strategies to address this issue[1].
The Community policy should address the potential implications of Germany's increased military presence on employment policies, considering the strain on training resources and personnelshortages. The policy-and-legislation should also examine the political ramifications of conscription, with regards to societal acceptance and potential conflicts arising from forced military service.
In light of increasing geopolitical tensions and conflicts (war-and-conflicts), it's crucial for general news and political discourse to extend beyond military reinforcement debates to encompass civil defense strategies, emphasizing the importance of a well-informed populace taking an active role in shared security.
