Chatting 'Bout the Atomic Row: "A Nuclear Iran Would Pose a Seismic Threat to Europe"
"Military Nuclear Expansion of Iran Poses Significant Danger to Europe"
Experts are currently locked in discussions with the Iranian regime to curb its nuclear program. Leaders rely on US President Donald Trump to facilitate diplomacy, says Middle East expert Stephan Stetter. He also points out two potential situations that could spark a regime change in Tehran.
ntv.de (More Info: Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp, E-Mail, Print, Copy Link): Is a military intervention on its own capable of causing the overthrow of the Iranian regime?
Stephan Stetter: It all hinges on the intensity of the military intervention. For now, Israel is conducting air attacks and occasional Mossad covert operations on the ground. For a regime change to happen in this manner, one of two scenarios must unfold. Either the Iranian populace, which is largely critical of its own government, says, "Enough is enough" - triggering a domino effect that results in the people successfully toppling the Iranian regime.
Or the resistance comes from the Iranian military, who see their own interests being jeopardized and say, "We need to oust the mullahs to establish a military government." The Iranian military could abandon the mullahs' ideology if they are pressured sufficiently and believe that American attacks are causing them to lose all their options. However, I don't foresee either of these scenarios taking place. Militarily overthrowing a regime from the outside would necessitate ground troops moving in, as was the case during the US war against Iraq. But neither Israel, the United States, nor anyone else is currently willing to take that risk in a country as vast and complex as Iran.
ntv.de: How solid is the support among the population for the Iranian state doctrine that calls for the annihilation of Israel?
There is only a small percentage of backing for it. Historically, there has been no political opposition to Israel within Iran, unlike in many Arab states. The mood among the Iranian populace may shift due to Israeli attacks. The Iranians do not desire war. People are fleeing the affected areas in large numbers due to fear for their lives. War can create previously unknown hatred. However, it's important to remember that there are historical ties between Israel and Iran. The operations of Israel within Iran are only possible with the help of Iranian informants. This resource needs to be cultivated and expanded.
ntv.de: Are there significant groups within the population with democratic aspirations?
Yes, there definitely are. But a regime like Iran's should not be underestimated. It is a country that is unusually aggressive in both foreign and domestic policy. Democratic movements have been violently suppressed. As the pressure increases, the regime's secret service apparatus becomes increasingly brutal. Every authoritarian regime can collapse suddenly. No one knows that until it happens. This scenario could also unfold in Iran.
ntv.de: Why has Trump given two weeks for a decision regarding US entry into the war?
Israel has clearly stated: To destroy the uranium enrichment facility, we require the Americans and their special bombs. However, the Americans seem hesitant. Trump might be playing a game of chess, allowing the Iranians to feel at ease now and then attacking in a few days. He could also be uncertain. Inside the Republican Party, there are two factions: those who advocate immediate military action against Iran, and those who favor staying out of military conflicts, following Trump's initial foreign policy slogan during his campaign. At present, diplomatic efforts are also underway. The US special envoy, Steve Witkoff, might negotiate with the Iranians. However, the Americans have essentially delegated diplomatic matters to the Europeans, indicating that meaningful diplomatic negotiations are not currently a priority for the US.
ntv.de: How does the conflict affect Europeans?
Europeans are deeply impacted by this conflict on various levels. Firstly, a nuclear-armed Iran, allied with Russia and possessing ballistic missiles, would pose a massive threat to Europe. Secondly, Iran is a hotbed of instability in the entire Middle East region, and these conflicts have consequences for Europe. They breed political extremism, cause refugee migrations, and complicate diplomatic situations.
Today, Europeans are negotiating with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghtchi about the nuclear program, with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul present. Will there be a resolution? The means at the Europeans' disposal are rather limited, as their relationship with the US has been frayed since Trump took office. This was not the case under the Obama administration. A "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" was devised in 2015 with technical restrictions and control mechanisms to block Iran from approaching nuclear bomb development. Veto powers of the UN Security Council, including Germany, France, and Britain, were involved. There was a division of labor and functional transatlantic relations. The Americans provided the diplomatic process with some room.
However, Europe's options are severely restricted at present. What can the Europeans offer? How can they persuasively threaten without the military power of the US? The bulk of the responsibility lies with the US, who could offer something. Europe can attempt to influence Trump to get him on board with the negotiations with the Iranians.
Interview by Lea Verstl with Stephan Stetter
Source: ntv.de
- USA
- Donald Trump
- EU
- Israel
- Iran
- Iran Conflict
- Iranian Nuclear Program
- Johann Wadephul
Enrichment Data Summarized:- The current negotiations between the EU (particularly the E3 group: France, Germany, and the UK) and Iran revolve around addressing Iran's nuclear program in the context of escalating tensions in the Middle East. These talks took place recently on June 20th, 2025, in Geneva, involving EU High Representative Kaja Kallas along with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the UK meeting their Iranian counterpart[1][4].- The EU and its E3 partners express concern over Iran's expansion of its nuclear program, which they believe has no credible civil purpose and violates provisions of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)[1][2].- The negotiations aim to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons by seeking a diplomatic and binding solution that ensures the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear activities[1][2].- The European negotiators support the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and call on Iran to cooperate fully with the agency based on its safeguards obligations and the latest IAEA report[1].- Europe is actively working to de-escalate hostilities between Iran and Israel through shuttle diplomacy among Israel, Iran, Washington, and key European capitals[4].- The aim is to reestablish a security dialogue and possibly revive elements of the JCPOA framework disrupted since the US unilateral withdrawal in 2018[4].- The potential impact on Europe includes security stability, economic and trade relations, and diplomatic influence[1][3][4].
- The potential seismic threat of a nuclear Iran to Europe highlights the urgency for cooperation among EC countries in dealing with the Iranian nuclear program and its wider implications on foreign and domestic policy, general news, and war-and-conflicts.
- The European Union, particularly France, Germany, and the UK (E3), are currently engaged in negotiations with Iran regarding its nuclear program and are seeking a diplomatic solution to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, emphasizing the importance of unity and cooperation policy among EC members in handling such complex international and political matters.
