In the latest episode of "Ukraine - the situation," military analyst Christian Mölling from the German Council on Foreign Relations pointed out that Russia is attempting to weaken NATO's political unity. Instead of seeking direct military conflicts, Moscow's goal is to divide the Western alliance and create zones of varying security within the alliance.
According to Mölling, Russia sees military power as a product of political unity. To weaken NATO's political unity, Russia employs a multi-faceted approach, employing political tactics and strategies. If successful, it could raise questions about the degree of solidarity within the alliance and the willingness of its members to support each other.
Mölling advises Europeans to prepare for potential scenarios where they would have to manage their security independently of the US. One reason for this stems from the possibility of the US withdrawing troops or the USconditionalsupport for NATO being put in question, for instance, due to domestic political changes in the US.
Regarding NATO's military capabilities, Mölling is not optimistic about the idea of committing a Bundeswehr brigade to Lithuania, suggesting that this might not yield the desired deterrence effect. While boosting defense spending and enhancing capabilities can potentially strengthen Europe's position within NATO, Mölling seems skeptical about the success and feasibility of this approach.
As for the European Union, in an attempt to prepare for possible shifts in US involvement in NATO, suggestions include strengthening Europe's defense capabilities, enhancing burden-sharing with the US, focusing on critical enablers, augmenting inventory management, upgrading nuclear deterrence, and coordinating more closely with the US.
[1] GSoFP: , ,
[2] European Council on Foreign Relations:
[3] Center for Strategic and International Studies:
[4] European Union's Global Strategy for Security and Defense:
