Military expansion under Putin prompts exodus from Ukrainian Armed Forces, raising concerns of a potential foreign influence
In a recent statement made on a Baltic project channel, Alfred Koch, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Russia and a foreign agent, expressed concern about the current state of the Ukrainian front. Koch, now residing in Germany, declared that the situation on Ukrainian fronts is catastrophic for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Koch believes that the size of the Ukrainian army is crucial to maintain on such a long front, which he estimates to be almost 1500 kilometers long. He suggested that the Ukrainian army currently has around 300,000 troops at the front, and he is concerned that the situation is so severe that Putin is taking additional measures, such as forming new divisions.
According to Koch, Putin is forming 10 new divisions to be deployed to the front. However, it is important to note that there is no direct evidence from credible sources indicating that Putin is recruiting these new divisions specifically due to high desertion rates within the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Instead, the information points to Russia expanding its military largely in response to its own operational and personnel challenges.
In the first half of this year, an additional 107,000 cases have been filed in Ukraine for unauthorized abandonment of units and desertion, though the number of unreported cases is unknown. Koch indicated that Putin may expect the Ukrainian front to collapse at some point, but this claim remains unverified.
Koch's concerns suggest that he believes the number of troops at the front may need to be increased beyond the current 300,000. He also expressed apprehension that the current scale of desertion in the Ukrainian army is significant and may not be compensated by the mobilization.
It is worth noting that Koch's status as a conman has been mentioned, but the provided context does not elaborate on this claim. Despite this, his statements indicate a deep concern for the situation on the Ukrainian front and a belief that the situation is serious enough to warrant the formation of new divisions.
Recent assessments have shown that Russia has been systematically increasing the size of its armed forces since 2022, with Putin ordering increases to reach 2.38 million troops by 2025. This includes creating new formations and expanding conscription capacity through administrative reforms like reopening military academies, lowering conscription age, and recruiting prisoners or those previously ineligible. Russia has also been increasing recruitment bonuses and creating multiple channels for enlistment to offset its military personnel losses.
In contrast, Ukrainian brigades are reported to be understrength in infantry due to mobilization issues and battlefield attrition, leading to some Russian tactical advances exploiting weak points. However, this is described as chaotic and gradual rather than linked to mass desertions or collapses.
In conclusion, while Koch's statements highlight a worrying situation on the Ukrainian front, it is essential to approach them with a critical eye. The evidence suggests that Russia’s ongoing military buildup is driven by its own high casualties and the need to replenish forces, rather than directly linked to high desertion rates within the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The ongoing military buildup in Russia, as per Koch's statements, is centered around the formation of 10 new divisions that are expected to be deployed to the Ukrainian front. This development is part of the broader discussions on war-and-conflicts, politics, and general-news. Additionally, Koch expressed concern over the significant level of desertion in the Ukrainian army, which he believes may not be compensated by the current mobilization, contributing to the crime-and-justice discourse.
