Military control transition during a wartime scenario to be completed by 2030, as suggested by Lee
Transfer of Wartime Operational Control (OPCON) from the United States to South Korea Planned for 2030
The Lee Jae Myung administration in South Korea has set a plan to transfer the wartime operational control (OPCON) from the United States to South Korean command by 2030, marking a significant step towards asserting the nation's military sovereignty. However, it's important to note that the transfer is dependent on meeting certain readiness conditions and no fixed transfer date has been set yet.
The government's governance plan views the OPCON transfer as a symbol of enhanced military sovereignty, especially amid shifting regional security dynamics and potential changes in U.S. troop posture, which may include the withdrawal of some U.S. ground forces from Korea. The transfer is also expected to be part of a broader "alliance modernization" effort involving adjustments to U.S. forces, defense spending, and command structures.
Preparations for this transition are ongoing, with a major upgrade of South Korea’s integrated military command network scheduled for completion by 2027. This upgrade aims to modernize command and control infrastructure and improve joint operational capabilities, reflecting that the transfer hinges on verified readiness conditions rather than a fixed timetable.
The Lee administration has also pledged to support the defense industry by fostering high-tech sectors such as artificial intelligence, drone systems, advanced engines, and space technologies, and by pursuing innovation in weapons acquisition. The government aims to restore inter-Korean relations by reopening communication channels, resuming talks and civilian exchanges, and restarting humanitarian cooperation.
However, recent official comments indicate that substantial progress on OPCON transfer is unlikely to be made at the upcoming talks or summit between South Korea and the U.S. This cautious diplomacy is due to unpredictable U.S. policy under the current Trump administration and broader geopolitical uncertainties, including North Korea’s behavior and China-U.S. tensions.
President Lee is expected to hold a summit with US President Donald Trump later this month, where the OPCON issue may resurface as a key agenda item. Meanwhile, the Defense Counterintelligence Command, tasked with countering North Korean espionage, has come under scrutiny for its role in former President Yoon Suk Yeol's martial law declaration on Dec. 3, 2024.
It's worth noting that South Korea has not held wartime operational control of its troops since the Korean War in 1950. In 1994, South Korea regained peacetime operational control under the liberal Kim Young-sam administration. The State Affairs Planning Committee, a de facto transition team, aims to establish and implement a roadmap for the OPCON transfer during Lee's term.
The government plans to address the shrinking number of military personnel by restructuring military branches, expanding the use of civilian resources, and improving the readiness of reserve forces. The Lee administration also promises a pragmatic approach based on national interest in its diplomatic relations, seeking to evolve the alliance with the US into a future-oriented comprehensive partnership, pursue forward-looking relations with Japan, deepen strategic ties with China, and manage relations with Russia in a stable and constructive manner. The plan also reaffirms Seoul's commitment to expanding its outreach to G7 nations, building upon the New Southern and New Northern policies, and to strengthening engagement with countries in the Global South.
In summary:
- OPCON transfer is planned by 2030 but dependent on meeting certain readiness conditions; no fixed transfer date has been set yet.
- The Lee administration supports transfer as a step toward enhanced military sovereignty and alliance modernization.
- Preparations like military command upgrades are underway, targeting completion around 2027.
- Near-term summit discussions with the U.S. may not produce concrete progress on OPCON transfer, reflecting cautious diplomacy and broader security concerns.
This reflects a continuation of the long-term trend of postponements and condition-based advancement toward transferring OPCON from U.S. to South Korean command during wartime.
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