Military Collaboration: Planned Joint Military Exercise Between Belarus and Russia Set for September
Headline: Zapad-2025: Concerns Mount as Belarus and Russia Prepare for Joint Military Exercises
Belarus and Russia are set to conduct the Zapad-2025 military exercises from September 12 to September 16, 2025. These exercises, which will simulate air defense and ground combat scenarios, have raised concerns in the region, particularly in Ukraine, due to their historical significance and timing.
The Zapad exercises have a troubling precedent. The most notable example is Zapad 2021, a large-scale joint Russia-Belarus military drill that involved approximately 13,000 Belarusian and 200,000 Russian troops. These exercises coincided with escalating regional tensions and preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, during which Russian forces utilized Belarusian territory as a staging ground for attacks on Kyiv.
The current context of Zapad-2025 raises similar concerns. Official Belarusian numbers suggest around 7,000–13,000 troops will be involved, but NATO intelligence estimates suggest the actual involvement could be as high as 100,000 to 150,000 troops. This uncertainty, coupled with the exercises' timing, has put NATO forces and Ukraine on high alert.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed concerns that Russia could be planning something this summer in Belarus, and that the joint training exercise could mark the beginning of a full-scale invasion similar to the one in 2022. Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka, however, has dismissed these concerns, stating that Belarus is not going to attack Ukraine, Poland, or the Baltic states.
The relationship between Belarus and Russia has been strained since the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenka has allowed Putin to deploy Russian soldiers on Belarusian territory and transport Russian equipment from Belarus into Ukraine, but has not sent Belarusian soldiers. This decision, coupled with Putin's need to overcome Ukraine's defense forces, has led to speculation about Lukashenka's ability to hold off Putin forever.
The Russian Federation has sustained over one million casualties and lost tens of billions of dollars in military equipment and hardware during the invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, the Russian Federation has continued to use Belarus as a staging area for troops and transported weapons into Ukraine. This has not been without opposition, as several Belarusian military officials have resigned from the Belarusian military and joined volunteer battalions helping Ukrainian forces.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces and volunteer battalions launched a counteroffensive and successfully defended Kyiv and liberated all of central and northern Ukraine. This successful defense has likely contributed to the concerns surrounding Zapad-2025, as Russia may be seeking to regain lost ground.
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense has announced that the Belarusian military will conduct training exercises with the Russian Federation, which will also include drills on repelling invading forces and undergoing nuclear weapons training. This has further fueled concerns in the region, particularly in Ukraine.
It is important to note that most Belarusian citizens do not support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Independent assessments by the Latvian Ministry of Defense suggest that between 100,000 and 150,000 Belarusian and Russian soldiers will be involved in Zapad-2025, compared to the Belarusian Ministry's claim of 13,000. This discrepancy highlights the need for continued vigilance and careful monitoring of the situation.
In conclusion, the Zapad-2025 military exercises, set to take place in Belarus from September 12 to September 16, 2025, have raised concerns due to their historical precedent and timing. The recent history of joint drills between Belarus and Russia preceding military actions in Ukraine has led to a heightened state of alert in the region, particularly in Ukraine. It remains to be seen how the situation will develop, but continued monitoring and vigilance are crucial.
- Amidst concerns in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed apprehension that Russia could plan another invasion akin to the one in 2022, following speculation about Zapad-2025 marking the beginning of such an attack.
- In the realm of war-and-conflicts and general-news, NATO forces are on high alert due to the timing and uncertainty surrounding the involvement of troops in the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises between Belarus and Russia.
- Despite concerns about the Zapad-2025 military exercises and the historical precedent of similar drills preceding military actions in Ukraine, Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka has insisted that Belarus has no intention of attacking Ukraine or any of its neighbors.
